I just typed a chapter in a novel regarding Tapit moving forward and lost it to a stale page, so I'm not gonna retype it..lol

I don't know what the true stats are on Dickenson, but I am certain that Tapit will be poised to move forward barring dislike of the track, injury, sickness, trouble or negatively reacting to the huge Churchill Crowd. The Wood took nothing out of that horse. If you're the least bit hesitant to bet Tapit off a fear he may not have more in him, thats a mistake. Whether its enough is another matter.

If he plays like he did in the Wood, he'll get beat even if he improves. Theres no margin for error with this group unless he's even better than he appears. I already think on professional running he's at least a length better. By my estimation he lost that or more with his Wood Gawking.

I was wrong about this horse, he's not a miler. That doesn't mean he'll win and I'll probably take a stand against him for the win, but I'm expecting a bang up race out of him. Then again this may be the ideal spot for the "Chaos" theory of handicapping. The "Nutbag" perfecta box...Friends Lake and Tapit. :)

One last thought before I close this book: Its hard for me to hold Tapits relatively light schedule against him. I don't. I think the critical factors for him at least are going to be the huge field and his pace style (especially the one he showed in the Wood) and the Crowd. Its really hard to say how that crowd will impact him. So he has to overcome those two variables from my perspective.



Post Edited (04-22-04 13:36)