Re: Lion Heart (602 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 22, 2004 06:21PM
On the who will be on the lead question, connections of those with no hope, who are there to run in the Derby rather than win it, are more likely to want to see their horse in front. Those with serious intent-- especially if there are distance questions-- are more likely to rate. Also, as Watchmaker observed last week, Mike Smith never saw a wide path he didn't like.
HOWEVER-- in your run of the mill Derby, 17 horses or so, the average path is about 3 or 4 on each turn, as opposed to a little over 2 in an ordinary race, and every path on a turn is worth a length, or 1/2 point at this distance. In a 20 horse field there is going to be chaos as horses try to come from out of it, and there will be horses who get a 2 turn combined path of 10. Which means a horse who races near the lead and gets a combined path of 4 or 5 will pick up a few lengths from the average horse, and more from some, and won't have to deal with the serious traffic problems some will encounter.
TGJB