I know some people try to handicap the Derby as if it were just another race but it isn't. It is unique. The crowd, the longer distance, the very large field, the hopes and dreams of all the riders/trainers/owners, and the long run to the first turn make it a singular event in the racing world.

In particular, all these factors usually contribute to a fast, early pace regardless of how fast the horses have been running in their preps. This year will be another large field with several quality speed horses (LH, SJ, QGR and RTF) and a few other quick horses of lesser quality. Unless they all draw into the middle posts (unlikely), those drawing inside or outside posts will probably feel forced to send their horses early to get or maintain a good position.

Here is a little data to chew on. Between 1985 and 1998 (I don't have the recent years handy) there were 11 Derbies run with 15 or more horses entered. Below are the 4f splits for each. Note that NONE was 47 or above.

45.2
46.4
46.8
46.6
46.0
46.4
46.8
46.6
45.8
46.2
46.4

The median is 46 and 2/5 seconds (7 of the 11 were that fast or faster). I think it is safe to say that we are likely to see fractions at least that fast this year. I would strongly recommend against handicapping the race assuming the LH will set a half mile fraction of 47 or slower and have the lead.

Also keep in mind that after the 2001 suicidal pace duel trainers and riders were reluctant to send their horses the last 2 years and subsequently front runners have won both races. I have a feeling that tactics may be very different this year given that recent history. Also, keep in mind that it almost never works to try and change tactics in the Derby and rate a speed horse and I just don't see it happening this year with several quality speed horses likely to take their chances using what worked to get them there.

Should be a fun Derby for sure. I am not saying that LH will not win, I am just suggesting that he will probably have to work hard throughout the entire 10f to do so.

Chris



Post Edited (04-23-04 23:13)