Re: Hypothetical... (772 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2015 12:52PM
TGJB Wrote:
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> ...and it's just that. Not based on any
> information whatsoever.
>
> If you heard one horse was withdrawn because of a
> soundness problem (not because it didn't train
> well or any other reason) between now and raceday,
> who would it most likely be? And should the same
> thinking factor into handicapping the race?
My guess is that I would look at horses that ran big negative figs early as such grueling efforts may be able to be looked upon as the origin of the soundness issues. I still have no idea who you may be talking about and who it is. However, from the handicapping standpoint, I am looking at these horses in tiers. I am assuming that some of the ones in the tier will fire their best shot and some will flop. So, I have one tier which has the 4 fastest horses in it....I am prepared if 2 fire a good shot and 2 are nowhere. I hate spreading so much, but I think it is the way you need to do it.