Re: Hypothetical... (727 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2015 02:14PM
You are making my point. I don't know why this is difficult.
People run horses here that they wouldn't otherwise. That needs to be taken into account in handicapping.
And I'm not talking about things like Empire Maker being off or horses missing a work, though obviously those things have their place. But there are sound patterns (International Star, for example), unsound ones, and ambiguous ones.
If a horse has a 15% chance of going wrong in the race it doesn't change things that much if you're getting 25-1. It matters a hell of a lot if you're taking one of the favorites.