From Expressbet.com

Two Strokes of Fortune for Pharoah
May 18, 2015 | By Jeremy Plonk

Yes, American Pharoah has won America’s two biggest races for the 3-year-old set so far this year – the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. So it’s easy to see why his fortune has been two-pronged. But as he embarks on stage three of the Triple Crown at Belmont in three weeks’ time, his biggest strokes of good fortune both saw bad luck turn good.

American Pharoah was a Zayat Stables home-bred, but not one that drew the name of a family member or was earmarked for destiny by the home team. In fact, they entered him at sale and expected to draw big bucks. But when American Pharoah injured himself slightly before breezing at the 2-year-old in training sales, he didn’t draw the attention from buyers that Ahmed Zayat had hoped. This was supposed to be a million-dollar sales bonanza. When the bidding war muffled, Zayat tipped his hand for $300,000 as a buy-back and decided to keep American Pharoah.

Stroke of very good fortune, number one.

Once at the races and under Bob Baffert’s care, it was apparent at Del Mar that the trainer liked what he saw. He told his wife and those around him that his key juvenile of the meet was American Pharoah, and had to eat a bit of crow after a head-scratching debut no-show. But Baffert went back to the drawing board, remained confident and rattled off successive victories in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita without ever stepping foot back into a maiden race.

Heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a deep foot bruise was reported with American Pharoah and it was announced he’d miss the championship showdown at Santa Anita on his home track. Not only did he miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he would spend 168 days between his Frontrunner Stakes victory and his mid-March return in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes.

A second stroke of very good fortune had been struck.

If that sounds counter-intuitive, consider where American Pharoah stands right now. He’s on the brink of the toughest test of his life in the 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes. A total of 20 horses have failed to deliver the Triple Crown trophy in this position two-thirds of the way home and in the gate at Belmont. Only 11 have succeeded.

And while there’s much talk about what went right and wrong for Triple Crown winners and losers, there’s a very distinct factor now in American Pharoah’s favor. The injury in October last year and long time to return put him on a mandatory winter break that was a hallmark of all 11 past Triple Crown winners. Even in an era when horses ran far more than today, the 11 Triple Crown winners averaged a winter break of 158 days! Yes, 158 days on average! American’s Pharoah’s 168-day break between starts at 2 and 3 hits smack-dab in the middle of where it should when measuring all 11 Triple Crown winners. Their time between rookie and sophomore seasons is listed below:

WINTER BREAKS OF TRIPLE CROWN WINNERS
(Days between final 2YO start & 3YO debut)

238 days Sir Barton (1919)
210 days Gallant Fox (1930)
205 days Omaha (1935)
186 days War Admiral (1937)
186 days Assault (1946)
--168 days American Pharoah (2015) --
154 days Count Fleet (1943)
144 days Seattle Slew (1977)
130 days Affirmed (1978)
119 days Secretariat (1973)
86 days Whirlaway (1941)
86 days Citation (1948)

While this certainly doesn’t guarantee American Pharoah victory at Belmont Park, his freshness by default could just turn out to be the factor that puts him over the hump when so many others have failed. And if it does, his own body’s failures at the 2-year-old sales and heading into the Breeders’ Cup could be the most ironic of factors that immortalize him as a racing giant.