Either Carpe Diem or Materiality will go for the lead, American Pharoh sits 2nd between those two. The other possibility is that War Story goes, as promised. In any scenario, WS will be treated like a bug who is a minor annoyance and will have no affect on how the 3 other pace horses run their races, unless he stops cold in front of one of them on the turn. One of the 3 pace horses (minus WS) will go on to take command and pull away. If he's been able to withstand the grind & passes the eye & weight tests it will be AP and we'll have out 1st Triple Crown winner in 37 years. If he's been worn down & looks bad coming onto the track, one of the Pletchers will win. Either way the off the pace bettors will be whining about the pace again like they did after the Derby. The 4th & 5th pace horses (after not taking anything up front WS is doing seriously), Mubtaahij & Frosted have the best chances to hit the board in minor spots. Nobody at the back of the pack, Tale of Verve, Keen Ice, Frammento, or Conquest Curlinate should ever have much impact. One could hit the super as the 4th horse if the others tire late. The Peter Pan winner is outclassed & won't be anywhere near the winner at the finish.