Re: Filliy Soccer ---> ROTW (527 Views)
Posted by:
P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: June 27, 2015 01:07PM
Batti Man - looks like a 3 and change
Hard Aces - big number to start the year, then back to his usual, which is around BM figure (3 and change)
Poshky - Great looking pattern as a 3YO, but has never gone past that 3 and change. As a 5YO looks like his number is also around the 3-4 range.
Motown Men - West gets ahold of him as a 6YO, and now he's running 4+ points better than before. Those last 3 were at distances of 1M and 1 1/16. Don't know if this guy runs that number at this distance.
Majestic City - This is the clear play to me. On his best, he's faster than everyone but Moreno and Hoppertunity, who will be much lower.
Hoppertunity - This is a nice horse, and is fast. But he's never run 2 of his best BTB, so if he does that again - backs up a couple points - he can be beat. The short rest is a concern too, 14 days shipping back from CD.
Big Cazanova - If not for Batti Man pressuring the pace, this one would be very interesting. If he can settle and not get hooked into a duel, its time for one of his good ones. Around a 2, which can definitely be good enough to hit the board.
Moreno - Yeah, I see the sheet. He's fast, and has several good enough to win. But that Chuckytown race was huge, and he might still be feeling the effects of it. He ran that same number at the Spa, didn't have to travel again and ran another neg there. Then backed up a bit at Belmont. This year marches right back down to the big number, then backs up 2 points last time. If he runs around a 2 (certainly not out of the question), then that doesn't make him any faster than several here. He's traveled quite a bit already this year. I'm taking a stand against this guy today, not saying he runs a clunker, but he's not on top of my tickets.
Catch A Flight - Pairs 3.1 three times then runs a 1/2 last time. Analysis says bounce, I see a solid older horse getting better. At the smallish price I can't use on top, but hard to see this horse not run a good race and hit the board.
Lideris - Slow
Finnegan's Wake - No doubt he gets the distance, and his turf numbers are pretty decent. If he runs his usual number, a 2.2, he is right there. He also gets the benefit of one of the greatest riders of all time, a rider that is simply incredible in the big races. I mean, this guy is so good I'm giving this horse a 1/4 point bonus just because he's the jockey today.
Majestic City is the clear play for me. There are valid reasons that those that can run faster, won't. I think Big Cazanova and Finnegan's Wake can be used underneath, as well as Catch A Flight. Will add in Moreno underneath too, and possibly Motown Men or Hoppertunity. Leaning Hoppertunity.
My play will be a win bet on Majestic City.
Exacta Boxes with Big Cazanova, Finnegan's Wake, and Catch A Flight.
Trifecta keying Majestic City over the 5 mentioned. Will also play a trifecta with the 3 exacta horses on top, and keying MC in the 2/3 slots.
Great card at The Great Race Place today............
...........and How Bout Them Dubs!!!!!! 40 years was worth the wait.
Have a great Saturday everybody.
P-Dub