Frank,

Your pick 4 ticket reflects what a bad betting sequence this is. U have posted each week and most of your tickets had upside of thousands. The ticket u posted here may pay 60 bucks.

IMO if u are going to play this sequence u can't use holy boss and competitive edge. That race looks like the race u HAVE to try and get a price horse home or u have to pass on the sequence. Private zone is 2-1 and solid, Flintshire is 4/5 and deserves to be, because despite the race looking sort of competitive on thorograph, it isn't. Flintshire is a ton better than the middling group of horses we have running in that race. Yeah, imagining got a disgusting ride last time and Ortiz figures to give him a good trip, but barring a fluke, he looks almost as solid as AP to me. And then of course, u have AP in the last leg, with a pace and figure edge.

Holy boss is solid, but 7 furlongs against this quality is an unknown. Can't take a horse as a favorite to do something he hasn't done before. (Harvey pack). Competitive edge has been a bit over rated, and looks weak on TG especially, relative to his expected off odds. I think the pace is contested here and will use three horses. Classy class, March and Grand Bili. I think they are solid and offer value.

I will press private zone in the forego, but will use two horses for half as much. Race day was nightmarish at Monmouth, but his prior races were good. And wise guy horse Tamarkuz, who doesn't fit on TG, but had a middle move into a hot pace in the Met Mile, which stunted his final figure. We see his best today.

I stand with Flintshire.

Then I get stubborn in the travers. I can't resist the risk reward of betting against Pharaoh and heck, been doing it since April. I probably weight my pick 4 to be 4x on Pharaoh, 2x on Texas red and 1x on upstart.

On a separate note, those watching NY closely have likely seen this, but being on or near the lead on the Mellon turf course has been horrible for 2 weeks now. The inner has been neutral, but other than the 2-1 maiden who set a slow sprint pace yesterday, I haven't seen a horse run well near the lead at all. Yes, I know somebody could post that the Mellon was always tougher on speed than the inner, which is sort of true, but the last two weeks have been VERY strongly against speed. Worth watching and factoring in. For one, it makes Tepin look vulnerable to me and makes me look at coffee clique to rebound if he finally gets an off the pace ride from the outside post.

Rob