miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rob,
>
> I knew you were joking but surprised with all the
> theories about dead rails, pinned inside,trainers
> record at SPA vs Monmouth et al that no one
> offered wash out as reason AP lost
>
> Mike


How about this for a theory...He's a good horse, but not a great one.

He's got two -3's on his sheet. How impressive was that last -3 anyway, with Keen Ice quickly getting to him in the Haskell? AP was geared down for the stretch correct? Does that explain it? If that race goes another eighth you think AP hangs on? Watch it again just for grins.

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TykbH5j9nZI]Haskell[/url]

Really how impressive is the Slop Trot at Pimlico? Right to the front on the slop. Seriously, just how good is the 2nd place horse? Just how impressive was the third fraction in 1:11 and change? AP surely liked it. How many times have we seen a front end slop trot? Watch it again just for yukes.

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30nMVd8Prvs]Preakness[/url]

What about the Belmont?

Right to the front again. No early pressure. Visually it looked impressive with good late fractions, but it was a scalding track and got discounted. AP got to trot around again, unpressured.

Now the Travers.

You can compare APs action here and in the Haskell. The AP camp says he didn't look right? What do you think? To my eye the only discernable difference is Espinoza has to ask AP to get down on his belly and it's a battle, because those [u]were[/u] fast fractions.

Anyway, AP tries the Speed Pop again. Why not, he's worked the trick with this group before, but this time there's a good horse that is not going to let him just coast around with his ears pricked like in the other races. This isn't Competitive Edge taking a lead to be run down. This time its one of the faster horses in the crop and he's gonna test AP from outside. AP gets engaged and you don't see the happy ears. Not at all. He's in a battle now for the first time since the Kentucky Derby. This ain't Sloppy Pimlico and this ain't Monmouth. Today its a fair track with a top horse right on him. AP has to reach deep down to put Frosted away and then Keen Ice picks up the pieces.

Here it is again if you want to watch it for chuckles.

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJPx0IJHSXw]Travers[/url]

Now, could the track have played a role? Obviously, the track always plays a role. Tgraph has points added and shaved every which way for the Travers card. But if you acknowledge that tracks can change speeds, why couldn't they change speeds outer rail to inner rail and even near turn to far turn? Think about that.

And I'll leave you with one other thought, because I don't know the answer to it. Do the watering trucks use pumps to maintain constant pressure for uniformity or are they merely filled and use gravity and their volume to discharge from the watering valves? If so, wouldn't they cover differently as the pressure lessens? That might be significant.

That was a funky track.

That was a general question for anyone that can clear it up, but Miff I have a question for you, what do you think about the prospects for a dead rail after viewing the Travers video above? Did you note all the moisture near the outer rail?