Re: Was it the Slop (581 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 02, 2004 03:40PM
The old crows here are gonna laugh at me, but I actually took the time to try and understand what you were saying John and I have to admit, it wasn't easy...lol
Apparently you are an advocate of a formula to win these "pick consecutive race winners" bets. From what I gather the gist of your theory is to pick two winners per race based upon "morning line" odds. It sounded like you intially restricted the selections to the two lowest odds "morning line" horses. However, later you seemed to indicate that the selection was to pick two horses from the four lowest odds "morning line" entries. Additionally, it seemed to me you were saying don't include as a selection any horse whose morning line is 10-1 or higher.
The most alarming tenet of your theory was to pick a horse "adjacent" to a heavy favorite. I couldn't figure out what you meant. I didn't think you meant "next to in post position". Apparently, in your example, the highest odd entry for the top 4 morning line animals was 10-1 and the fifth (or next/adjacent)lowest morning line animal had odds of 15-1. In this case being the 2 horse "Shaconage".
John it seems to me your advocacy was to select Shaconage because at 15-1 he was "close to" falling into the top 4 morning line animals and therefore he was a prime selection. John this violates your stated principle not to select a horse in excess of 10-1 morning line.
I once read a theory about how to cash winners. You go by which 3 horses are the Post Time favorites and of those 3 you pick your winner. Its based on a study that the top 3 post time horses win the great majority of races. Thats clearly true but if you bet that strategy you're not gonna come up with many big balloons.
John there is no formula. Its not easy. Theres no simple way to bet the horses. You can't look at a program and see the four numbers on the bottom and think theres anything to those numbers other than ink and paper. If there is a formula you're gonna need a house full of computers to figure it out and you're probably gonna have to bet on a scale that few can afford and no one can physically accomplish.
One last insight. If you have a 10 horse field you only have to find the 2 best horses to hit a perfecta. The better you become at winning perfectas the easier it is to hit the Trifectas and Superfectas. The Superfectas are hard to hit. If you have 3, 10 horse fields thats 30 horses as compared to 10 horses in a single field, do really think those bets are easier to hit?
Theres no easy money here and if you're trying to mine it you're in for a rough road. Start watching races and not betting. Make your selections with monopoly money and don't even think about betting your own money until you can bet for a month with monopoly money and win MOST days and turn a profit for a month. Be Careful and if your married take your wife with you...lol
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