Re: Was it the Slop (567 Views)
Posted by:
Bham41 (IP Logged)
Date: May 02, 2004 04:30PM
My point was only that the handicappers that set the morning lines are vastly
superior to an apprentice wannabe handicapper like myself and I am sure their
abilities will vary from track to track if not from race to race. I cut my
teeth on and soon gave up on handicapping dogs for personal benefits and went to
the easier horses (right). No, the comment about the adjacent to was talking
about post position and the affect if not profound effect it has on its
neighbors in dog racing and less profound but existing in horses. Whether its a
faster pace, a chase scene which is a bit more common behind a fast filly and a
non gelding but happens still, or just kismet who knows. Didn't say it works
every time just did for this race. The first and second lowest odds won all the
races except for the Shaconage race when the post postion ruled and the races
where there were several odds lower than ten to one. In plainer language there
is no heavy favorite only a horse that would win the race 40 or even 50 times
out of 100 races. Even when the odds are lower like Smarty Jones the second
lowest odds is usually the winner, Smarty Jones being the perfect example being
a 9/2 morning line compared to The Cliffs Edge 4-1 who was the favorite.
Also, the name is James Gilliam and not quite like but extremely similar to the
broker that The Cliffs Edge was named for, speaking of money and throwing it
away have you ever played the stock marker 300 is chump change in volatile
stocks and they have monopoly money games too called stock simulations. Any Dog
or Horse simulations for betting not running a gimmick race. I played those
for months making 30% or more a quarter but still lost my arse on a smaller
scale with my own real dough.
Also one of the contributors to your site said that Tapit would win this race 30
times out of 100. Mathematically you would need three and a bit of horses as
good as or better than Tapit to expect a 100 percent certainty of winning and
significantly lower your risk adversity.
My formula requires only two bets per race unless there are exceptions then
three to five on one race only. Good advice is to pick another Pick 3 if thats
too pricey. My 12 dollar ticket would have netted me over two grand if 7 had
won race 9 if I had went with the two favorites and the 7 my ticket would have
only cost 36 dollars. Gas to the track is more than that or soon will be, whats
a working man to do.
PS - Divorced not only due to the track but other things. There are certainly
more risks in life than the measurable ones in Dollars and Cents.
James Gilliam
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