Updated based a bit on the comments and the Cupid defection. My last public attempt/adjustment until Derby week. But certainly hoping to hear more comments about anticipated odds.

I do not believe Exaggerator will reach 6-1 so I pushed the envelope as far as I could. As for Lani, I moved him up the ladder a bit and had considered the Japanese angle but I'm not certain if their money can reach the pools here or not. As for a cult following, last year's UAE Derby winner and 2009 Desert Party both went off at 14-1. But they were hyped based on their time, margins of victory, etc. Lani earned an 83 Beyer apparently which word will spread about among the masses and I anticipate he won't get hammered below 25-1 in the pools and obviously I'm thinking longer than that. Lines of Battle was 32-1 in 2013 and Master of Hounds in 2011 was 16-1 after he ran second in UAE Derby. Lani doesn't have the steam of the big names and seems more like Lines of Battle.

As for Adventist, I wouldn't venture a guess unless I had the full field to line him up against so I won't even try at this point to give you a number due to who would have to defect, etc.

I've adjusted downward with several after inflating 2 through 4. I am feeling pretty good that this in the ballpark. The only issue that I could have substantially wrong that could really be a huge impact is Nyquist. A lesson I've learned since my first serious trips to the track is that undefeated horses are often overbet. So is it possible that Nyquist goes off at 2.00-1? I guess so but I really believe comparing him to previous favorites in the recent era that 7-2 is more accurate.

Usually there are 9 to 10 horses under 20-1. Guessing the top 10 seems to be fairly predictable. After that, it is sheer guessing. One example would be that if Mike Repole bet on Outwork if he so desired could skew his odds immensely I would presume. A few have remained the same and many were adjusted to reflect Mo Tom in the mix and the comments that seemed meritorious. This is based on a 17.5 percent win takeout from HANA's website.

1. Nyquist, 3.50-1
2. Exaggerator, 5.90-1
3. Brody's Cause, 8.50-1
4. Destin, 9.00-1
5. Mohaymen, 10.70-1
6. Creator, 12.30-1
7. Gun Runner, 12.80-1
8. Mor Spirit, 13.20-1
9. Mo Tom, 19.00-1
10. Suddenbreakingnews, 23.30-1
11. Danzig Candy, 27.50-1
12. My Man Sam, 29.30-1
13. Whitmore, 31.20-1
14. Outwork, 34.70-1
15. Lani, 36.00-1
16. Shagaf, 39.00-1
17. Tom's Ready, 44.40-1
18. Majesto, 49.00-1
19. Oscar Nominated, 70.40-1
20. Trojan Nation, 82.30-1