I'm expecting a 2-3 point forward move. I don't see his 5 point move from Tampa (which I consider a total toss race) to the Bluegrass as a jump up. Rather, I see him returning to his 2yo top 2nd off a layoff and ready to move forward another 2-3 points.

Brody is one of 5 horses who ran fast enough as a 2yo where a move to the 0 to 1 range it will take to win this year's Derby should be well within his wheelhouse. Of the 5, only Brody, Nyquist & Exaggerator ran well in their final prep (the other 2 Mohaymen & Mor Spirit either off'd or X'd). Brody ran the same # in the Bluegrass as Nyquist's Fla Derby & head to head has finished ahead of Exaggerator twice.

What makes Brody value is his Beyers are low enough to keep him off the radar of the just about all the casual fans who will only look at the DRF Basic PPs. His top Beyer is a 91. More than half the field has run higher Beyers. I'll take the 12-1 to 15-1 on Brody over Nyquist or Exaggerator every day. I can always protect myself against them in exacta boxes.