Re: SMARTY WILL LOSE THE BELMONT (611 Views)
Date: May 17, 2004 05:53PM
I think it's pretty clear this is the best horse to come into the Belmont trying for a triple crown in a long time. He's certainly a lot better than some of the recent ones.
He was very good right from the beginning of his career.
He moved forward as you would hope.
He has brilliance, but is rateable.
He is not missing a thing....other than of course the questions about his pedigee and ability to get 12 furlongs.
I'm not 100% convinced about his stamina to go 12 furlongs yet. I've seen plenty of horses look good at 9 and 10 furlongs and not run well at 12 furlongs.
Heck, just last year a lot of people were questioning Funny Cide's stamina going into the Derby and after he got it, 12 furlongs became a non-issue - which I thought was preposterous.
Usually they tip a stamina problem off through their figures or visually. Either, they will decline or not improve much off their big figures at shorter distances as they stretch out and time passes when they should be moving forward. Sometimes you will visually be able to see them shorten stride a little late in some of their races when tested a bit.
I haven't seen that from SJ yet, but I think it's a mistake to automatically assume he gets 12 furlongs when you make your odds line. He deserves to be a heavy favorite, but not an automatic.
This is still a big speed horse that was wiring sprints in 44.1. THere are not too many horses with a profile like that and a sprint pedigree that want 12 furlongs.
One thing I am 100% certain of.
If he loses, there will be a big debate about whether he lost because he bounced after so many tough races or whether he didn't want 12 furlongs. I think it will be the latter (IF he loses). I think Servis has done a masterful job with this horse. He looks great, is running great, has not been abused in the mornings and always without fail fires a big shot. This horse is going to run a big race in 3 weeks for at least 10 furlongs. :-)