Smarty's chances of winning this race are clearly good...the payout will be horrble...you can argue his chances are between 20% to maybe 70%, yet you payout will be 10% max...believe me, this horse will be POUNDED ON at the windows...his chances are NOT 90% or better as his odds will indicate...look eleswhere and cover yourself with $2 souvenier tixx that you can sell on ebay for 20 bucks that next day...easy money all around...and yes I do think breeding is a factor in this equation...RHT is brewd for it Smarty is NOT end of story...i realize how brilliant Smarty has been thus far and he may continue to freak...whats that old saying, a fool and his money...thnik VALUE, VALUE, VALUE for this years Belmont and it is not Smarty and it not keying him on top and hoping for the rest to suck up second.



Shifty Sheik, a former claimer now takes the lead...