I think you've hit on how Smarty can get beat in the Belmont. You're right, it's all about pedigree. Stevens should glue Rock Hard Ten right to Smarty's flank and scream ELUSIVE QUALITY and SMILE at him when they hit the far turn. Of course if recent history is any judge he better carry a bullhorn or a cell phone for the last 1/4 mile. Can you hear me now??? Value is in the eye of the beholder and with racing luck in the bankroll at the end of the day. Value Saturday wasn't Smarty or evn Mr. O'Brien (great call Jerry), but in throwing out Preachinatthebar and turning a $150 pick 3 into a $1500 pick 4 through two chalks. There will be value somewhere in the Belmont, but for me it won't be Rock Hard Ten at 7-1 based on pedigree. Woody Stephens said once that they'll all get a mile and a half - some just get it faster than others. Smarty's never done anything slow. I'm not saying he'll win but he'll be on my tickets. I just have to find a way to make that pay something.
Best of Luck.



Post Edited (05-18-04 08:50)