With all due respect, you don't understand the question. Whatever the truth (or lack of it, I'm not even going to break it down) of what you just said, it doesn't answer the question of how they got to THAT variant. THOSE figures. And as I pointed out, a) as it happened the way I did it DID tie to the only other dirt race in sight, and b) making the assumption that it HAD to would be nuts, even if you knew they DID do that (another assumption). The only other dirt race after the rain (and within 2 hours) was a rained off maiden grass race, the winner had never run on dirt. You really want to base the Preakness figures on that?

So again-- what was the basis of their Preakness figures?