AJ- I have no strong opinion, but having just looked at the race, this is a great opportunity to use your post, to discuss sheet theory, particularly with respect to developing 3 year olds- basically teenagers and trigger a discussion from the board.. I rarely bet the " fastest" horse. Rather, I try to look at patterns to see which horse will likely run a new top- sometimes a new top is fast enough to win a particularly race-- and sometimes not. But you always get good value since most players- sheets or otherwise -are focusing on the so called fastest horse. We can all stipulate that if Malagacy comes close to pairing up his sprint numbers ,he is a likely winner. At short odds however, I will bet that unless he is close to freak, he cannot duplicate his zero, and neg. 1 1/2 stretching out. American Anthem has good spacing and could certainly move forward off the 3 1/4. I
Iike Royal Mos pattern- yet to bounce- but he will lose ground as all the speed is inside. There are 3 horses that intrigue. 1. Uncontested- Ran a 6 1/2 first time out and came back as a 3 year old with a 4 in the slop. The improvement first time as a 3 year old over the 2 year old top is, for me an essential pattern of development. He faded in the Southwest after running fast fractions but should get a good trip tomorrow. At 10-1 morning line ( he was 6-5 in the Southwest, he is worth a look since his running a new top would be no surprise. 2. Untrapped-rand 5 as a 2 year old, did NOT reach that number on a sloppy track in the le Comte but ran a new top (4 3/4) in the Risen Star with a wide trip.. Once again,it would be no surprise, if he ran new top tomorrow and the pace should set up nicely. The " bomb" worth looking at ( for me)is Silver Dust. Ran a 7 3/4 breaking his maiden at a mile at CD with a nice run. He paired that top in the Southwest ( at 7-1), after being off for 90 days,did not have a great trip and will likely be 25-1. He is not for everybody but at the price worth a look, particularly in exotics since it would be a surprise if he does not move forward by several points. He is bred for slop and distance. Looking at Lee shows no development from 2 to 3 and with that post, even as a close is not my kind of bet. Fun race to test our acumen. Good luck to all