Re: FL Derby (1187 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: March 31, 2017 02:13AM
My first thought was also... seems a week field. The defection of Battalion Runner supports that view.
But the issue is? a logical strategy to make some money.
[b]Scenario A[/b]
#11 Gunnevera is hard to fault. If he flops then the tote will produce some attractive $'s. That is a big if. Has his campaign worn him down? His running style and pilot make a bad trip a bad bet. Other than a collapse the two chances would seem to be: a) he can't catch #1 State of Honor or #10 Three Rules or b) #4 Always Dreaming out kicks him late.
So buying into this perspective suggests win bets on #1 & #10.
and/or
While I'm not yet sold on #4 Always Dreaming (the 4/1 m/l seems short & his last race had such a slow pace). Grudgingly either put him on top of some verticals with the 1,10,11 or toss him - still contemplating c/b a post time decision.
[b]Scenario B[/b]
Another possibility is a long shot dark horse jumps up and either wins or delivers a pumped up vertical. Stab options from this perspective seem to be keep one or the other of the top two favorites out of the tri or super and get a double digit horse in. Which? There are several candidates. I'm passing on the Sky Mesa & Adios Charlie colts. Three entrants from Harlan Holiday each of which seem to be disappointments to their connection's investment to date yet sent out by competent trainers with capable jockeys. My view is the most under the radar choice is #2 Talk Logistics @ m/l 30/1 I'm imagining Plesa drew a line through his last or may have liked it (knowing something that I don't).
[b]Scenarion Simple[/b]
Single Gunne in horizontals.
Just a Thursday night perspective with plenty of time to second guess myself. Certainly would welcome some kibitzing or even better some insight.
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