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Re: FL Derby (1187 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: March 31, 2017 02:13AM

My first thought was also... seems a week field. The defection of Battalion Runner supports that view.

But the issue is? a logical strategy to make some money.

[b]Scenario A[/b]
#11 Gunnevera is hard to fault. If he flops then the tote will produce some attractive $'s. That is a big if. Has his campaign worn him down? His running style and pilot make a bad trip a bad bet. Other than a collapse the two chances would seem to be: a) he can't catch #1 State of Honor or #10 Three Rules or b) #4 Always Dreaming out kicks him late.

So buying into this perspective suggests win bets on #1 & #10.
and/or
While I'm not yet sold on #4 Always Dreaming (the 4/1 m/l seems short & his last race had such a slow pace). Grudgingly either put him on top of some verticals with the 1,10,11 or toss him - still contemplating c/b a post time decision.

[b]Scenario B[/b]
Another possibility is a long shot dark horse jumps up and either wins or delivers a pumped up vertical. Stab options from this perspective seem to be keep one or the other of the top two favorites out of the tri or super and get a double digit horse in. Which? There are several candidates. I'm passing on the Sky Mesa & Adios Charlie colts. Three entrants from Harlan Holiday each of which seem to be disappointments to their connection's investment to date yet sent out by competent trainers with capable jockeys. My view is the most under the radar choice is #2 Talk Logistics @ m/l 30/1 I'm imagining Plesa drew a line through his last or may have liked it (knowing something that I don't).

[b]Scenarion Simple[/b]
Single Gunne in horizontals.

Just a Thursday night perspective with plenty of time to second guess myself. Certainly would welcome some kibitzing or even better some insight.



Subject Written By Posted
FL Derby (1577 Views) johnnym 03/29/2017 12:51PM
Re: FL Derby (1278 Views) Silver Charm 03/29/2017 08:19PM
Re: FL Derby (1138 Views) firmturf 03/30/2017 11:50AM
Re: FL Derby (1135 Views) Silver Charm 03/30/2017 07:38PM
Re: FL Derby (1204 Views) alydar61 03/30/2017 10:55AM
Re: FL Derby (1177 Views) johnnym 03/30/2017 12:28PM
Re: FL Derby (1095 Views) Niall 03/30/2017 08:06PM
Re: FL Derby (1187 Views) Tavasco 03/31/2017 02:13AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1089 Views) Niall 03/31/2017 08:58AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1096 Views) ajkreider 03/31/2017 11:40AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1103 Views) johnnym 03/31/2017 11:58AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1187 Views) TGJB 03/31/2017 12:51PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1034 Views) Tavasco 03/31/2017 03:52PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1020 Views) RICH 03/31/2017 09:27PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (797 Views) ruthlessman 04/01/2017 11:01AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (736 Views) Tavasco 04/01/2017 11:11AM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (902 Views) Tavasco 04/01/2017 12:28PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (796 Views) ruthlessman 04/01/2017 12:52PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (917 Views) mlnolan00 03/31/2017 09:53PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (1054 Views) jimbo66 03/31/2017 10:29PM
Re: FL Derby - Outside the figures (883 Views) jbelfior 04/01/2017 07:35AM
Re: Gunnevera (1090 Views) BitPlayer 03/31/2017 06:57PM
Re: Gunnevera (1109 Views) johnnym 03/31/2017 07:23PM
Re: Gunnevera (Sano = Marcus Vitali) (1053 Views) JohnTChance 03/31/2017 08:25PM
Gunnevara - have to play against..... (1270 Views) jimbo66 03/31/2017 08:49PM


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