Mark,

I don't have any stats on that but I do have a few anecdotal cases on the Triple Crown trail and now that you got me thinking about them there may be a little "karma" going. This is all from memory but I think I have the facts pretty straight. Also, keep in mind that the surgery has probably failed to make a difference many times but you don't ever hear about those.

Alysheba had the same surgery before the Blue Grass and he won it (but was DQd) and then went on to win the Derby and Preakness. I seldom "pick" a Derby horse as a 2yo but Alysheba was one that I really liked in Sept of his 2yo year and was touting as my "Derby Pick" for the 7 months leading up to the Derby. The same can be said for Saarland this year.

The surgery also worked well for Coronado's Quest who won the Wood and ran well in the Preakness after the surgery. Of course, he was also trained by Shug.

Finally, Holy Bull had the surgery just before he ran brilliant races in the Fla Derby and the Blue Grass. He flopped in the Derby itself partly because they decided they would try and "take him back early," which totally took him out of his game. Be skeptical about any front runner in the Derby. If they go with the pace, they usually get cooked. If they try to layoff the pace that also usually backfires. Keep that in mind while evaluating War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Came Home, D'Oro, and Buddah this year (especially, if Coolmore enters their rabbit).

Chris