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 Race of the Week:  The Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Fair Grounds, Race 11, December 8, 2018 
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Re: Question for Mathcapper (340 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: November 07, 2018 02:52AM

Bit --

Other than what Boscar noted about some longshots getting bet down in the doubles much more than in the win pool (like that 16 horse in the Mile that was 18-1 in the Will Pays and went off at 84-1), I didn't really see all that much that was out of the ordinary.

Perhaps those longshots that were bet down in the doubles were skewing the average discrepancy you calculated. I don't know the specifics of that BCBC contest format so I can't really speak to it, but trwhis2 may have a point about longshot doubles getting bet down by contest players looking to leap to the top of the leaderboard.

It's also possible the bigger fields have something to do with the discrepancy you observed. Whenever there's a really big field, there's often a few horses whose implied odds vary significantly from the final odds, although I would think the fact that you're looking at the median instead of the average discrepancy would account for that.

In any event, I've posted the ML's, implied Will Pays odds (based on top 3 favorites from prior race) and Final Odds for each of Saturday's BC races below in case you want to check your data.

Generally, the only thing I've observed over the years on big days in regards to Will Pays is that I sometimes see the smart money acting in reverse. On a day-to-day basis, the win pool is the most efficient pool, but on really big days, I've seen the opposite to be true on occasion (the Palace Malice Belmont comes to mind -- 7-1 in Will Pays, 13.8-1 final odds).

This could just be selection-bias on my part, I've never really done a study on it. But it makes sense in that on big days the sharp money may be getting overwhelmed in the win pool by the all the uninformed public money that only comes in on such days.

Didn't really see that effect on Saturday though -- six of the nine BC winners went off below their implied Will Pays odds, including the winners of the last three biggest races on the card -- Accelerate, Enable and Monomoy Girl.

F&M Sprint CD 3
ML DD FL
1 4.4 6.39 5.39
2 16.3 39.3 39.4
3 21.7 52.9 65
4 32.5 71 59.7
5 10.9 7.1 6.45
6 16.3 21.9 15
7 10.9 31.7 33.1
8 16.3 23.8 21.4
9 21.7 38.1 46.9
10 21.7 52.7 43.7
11 10.9 10.4 7.51
12 16.3 15.5 33.1
13 1.81 0.72 0.92
14 21.7 37 27.7

Turf Sprint CD 4
ML DD FL
1 21.5 19 19.3
2 10.8 22.5 27.4
3 21.5 37.7 36.6
4 16.1 18.3 18.3
5 3.81 4.62 4.08
6 12.9 13.4 13.2
7 21.5 14.8 12.2
8 16.1 14.7 12.2
9 4.35 6.43 7.12
10 21.5 18.4 19.3
11 6.48 1.88 2.05
12 12.9 28.4 33.5
13 21.5 21.3 15.2
14 6.48 12.5 16.3

Dirt Mile CD 5
ML DD FL
1 2.55 2.07 2.7
2 20.3 53.4 65.6
3 20.3 35.1 30.7
4 15.2 22.3 23.3
5
6 5.08 10.1 10.6
7 6.1 5.75 5.35
8 20.3 23.8 14.9
9 15.2 22.1 23.3
10 1.64 1.02 0.9

F&M Turf CD 6
ML DD FL
1 5.45 3.92 4.76
2 21.6 39.5 69.1
3 3.84 2.92 2.66
4 21.6 28.2 38.8
5 32.3 22.5 38.8
6 3.3 4.6 3.19
7 32.3 23.9 55.5
8 32.3 93 104
9 10.8 11.5 11.6
10 5.45 7.12 5.28
11 21.6 32.5 34.6
12 16.2 18.4 31.5
13 16.2 19.7 50.3
14 16.2 8.15 6.33

Sprint CD 7
ML DD FL
1 6.43 6.51 6.21
2 6.43 5.02 4.66
3 21.3 59 58.7
4 16 56.2 35
5 1.97 1.75 1.68
6 21.3 65.1 53.6
7 12.8 51.1 39.2
8 6.43 4.56 4.66
9 2.71 2.13 2.6

Mile CD 8
ML DD FL
1 11.7 14.8 21.1
2 9.76 7.44 7.41
3 14.6 14.3 13.7
4
5 5.84 3.72 2.68
6 11.7 21.7 20
7 7.8 5.89 5.31
8 9.76 11.3 11.6
9
10 5.84 9.41 7.41
11 19.5 15.8 21.1
12 5.84 6.53 6.36
13 9.76 13 14.8
14 14.6 15 21.1
15 29.3 35.5 45.3
16 29.3 18.3 84.2

Distaff CD 9
ML DD FL
1 12.5 29.4 22.1
2 3.68 1.65 2.15
3 20.9 43.3 35.7
4 31.3 80.5 89.3
5 15.7 22.9 20
6 31.3 83.1 90.3
7 6.28 6.88 5.3
8 12.5 35.2 30.5
9 8.37 7.35 6.35
10 6.28 6.48 8.44
11 2.12 2.08 1.94

Turf CD 10
ML DD FL
1 12.8 10.4 22.2
2 1.12 0.94 0.8
3 12.8 7.85 7.48
4 10.6 10.2 9.68
5 10.6 12.1 10.1
6 31.8 49.3 53.2
7 12.8 16.7 12.7
8 31.8 90.4 75.7
9 31.8 40.9 136
10 21.2 31.1 41.9
11 31.8 26.6 37
12 4.82 6.06 5.29
13 31.8 33.2 114

Classic CD 11
ML DD FL
1 13.2 9.54 14.6
2 22 14.4 19.8
3 8.86 7.68 5.23
4 22 25.5 31.2
5 33 39.6 93.5
6 6.67 4.49 3.67
7 5.58 6.7 6.27
8 22 26 40.5
9 13.2 12.1 13.5
10 11.1 7.26 14.6
11 6.67 6.95 9.39
12 33 35.6 53
13 22 38.6 55.1
14 2.84 4.93 2.63



Subject Written By Posted
Question for Mathcapper (535 Views) BitPlayer 11/05/2018 09:53AM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (412 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/05/2018 02:19PM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (413 Views) trwhis2 11/05/2018 02:37PM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (408 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/05/2018 04:20PM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (340 Views) Mathcapper 11/07/2018 02:52AM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (231 Views) analizethis 11/07/2018 10:31AM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (225 Views) Mathcapper 11/07/2018 11:56AM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (210 Views) BitPlayer 11/07/2018 02:00PM
Re: Question for Mathcapper (226 Views) Mathcapper 11/07/2018 03:11PM


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