ROTW - Daves Friend (396 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: December 29, 2018 04:34AM
What do you think about in the late hours Friday night or a A few thoughts on top of the TG analysis.
What if ALTISSIMO is bet down from m/l 5/2 to say 8/5? Even celebrity horses from states other than Ohio are suspect after running a couple of career tops. I like him with TG @ the morning line. Baltimore is not so far from Cleveland that the players won't know he's fastest. With free TG sheets (thank you very much) the word is sure to get out. Several of the others could beat him should he back up.
Pace & exotics - the opportunity here is only #1 TEAM TIM (20/1) & #3 CAUTIOUS GIANT (9/2) are not horses whose best race is on or pressing the pace. That leaves five(5) contenders vying for the front and the win. I contend the super and even the tri may not be limited to that front running group.
#6 PERFECT COVER might at first glance look to be the first throwout. The positive view w/b toss his last he didn't like the slop. His m/l is 20/1. He's only a four y/o and well rested. A repeat of his top (1) probably gets him into the tri! Negatives - His challenge w/b he wants the lead and three (3) faster horses start inside of him. Ground loss or too fast early ruins his race.
#2 ALTISSIMO often sits second and runs off in the stretch alternatively he can set the pace if he wants it. I think this virtually assures those drawn outside of him lose some ground as long as he breaks well? A definite use in the verticals. Negatives - he could bounce big.
#4 MIDTOWNCHARLYBROWN is caught between a rock and a hard place. he doesn't appear to me to be quick enough to clear and is probably gonna get a lot of pressure in the early going from his outside. The fact that he came right back to his top is encouraging but his trip may be difficult. At 9/2 there is no sense in excluding him.
#5 LAKI the entrant we would like to see out of the money But his running style is more versatile than I first realized. His trip probably loses some ground. Short rest off a top is not a good sign. If jockey Karamanos tries to win the race by contesting the lead he may end up with nothing but if he is patient tucks in behind the pace to avoid ground loss its hard for me to imagine him out of the super.
#7 COLONEL SHARP has been very consistent this year. Drawing the outside post would appear to be a big disadvantage for this one. I don't believe he's quick enough to get good position on or near the pace. In any event his potential for ground loss is substantial. He occasionally passes horses but not really his thing. He is the first of the speed horses I would throw out. The 5/1 m/l doesn't entice.
#1 TEAM TIM (30) a light use in 4th at the bottom of a couple super tickets.
#3 CAUTIOUS GIANT (9/2) a key horse for me I won't leave him out but I also won't use him on all my tickets.
#2 in the first position
#'s 4 & 5 in the 2nd position
#'s 3, 4, 5 in the 3rd position
#'s 1,3,4,5,6 in the 4th position
win place saver on #6
some tri's per above
bulk of my action w/b supers
Thanks again Jerry & TG staff for your generosity but even more for your competence and professionalism all year long, again.
EDIT - #7 COLONEL SHARP the one horse I didn't like stole the race and wrecked all my bets. Sans #7 I had the tri and super with the longshot #1. Tough game.
| ROTW - Daves Friend (396 Views)
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.