Melody of Colors 9th GP (481 Views)
Posted by: belmont3
Date: February 23, 2019 10:09AM
Since most TG posters have been in hibernation this winter, I will post a race this morning.
South Florida seems warm and sunny so, absent a catastrophic Weatherman update, I will assume fast and firm.
5f turf sprint for 3yo fillies:
My thinking is that there are 3 entries with TG 3's that are close with the rest needing to improve. Since 3 year olds often do improve early in their careers there can be opportunities to find value. In this race, I find that there appears to be limited " early speed" types for 5f sprint.
1) Beachwood (7/2)- One of the faster ones with a nice closing TG # in his last. A race over the course, inside post but lacks early speed...Julien may fit but ground loss possibility. Also may react to the jump up # as well.
Contender but price not right.
2)Just Ain't Right 3-1:
A Pletcher 1st turfer. Slow dirt #'s TG Sire profile re Yes It's True has better dirt than turf rating. AT 3 to 1, despite respect for connections, I will let this one bet me
3) Catch a Thrill: (8-1) Mark "Can do no Wrong" gets Jose as Julien rides the Biancone #1. Slow MSW turf # and ambitiously placed in this stake. Would expect improvement but seems to lack gate speed.
Using underneath only
4) Decorated Ace (20-1) Low % barn turning this back off short layoff. Pass on top. At price with an isolate #, could be convinced to use small on very bottom of verticals for value.
5) Ginger Nut: (4-1) Irad, Sadler, Euro sprinter getting Lasix. Slow based on Euro numbers but who knows? Seems to be a closing type based on race lines.
At ML, have to Toss.
6) Don't Make Fun (6-1) Lightly raced Saffie gets Javier replacing Gaffalione. Last is competitive number. Another stalking, closing type.
7) Questionofthe day (15-1) Trombetta shipper from Laurel. On surface, his TG numbers appear far too slow. On the plus side, working fast, lone Turf trip was troubled Matron, has gate speed....fresh....Thus, expect improvement.
Using underneath in verticals.
8) Road Tiger (12-1) McPeek turnback not seen since the SPA. Slow TG's. Would be big surprise. Expect to see a closing run.
Not for me.
9) Play On (6-1) Cox FG shipper off short layoff. Shaun at GP to ride. Competitive #. Gate speed in a PP that will allow SB to choose his tactics.
At 7/2 or better, Contender and my KEY.
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