Re: ROTW - alt analysis (517 Views)
Posted by: TreadHead
Date: March 02, 2019 09:07AM
Taking a somewhat different view of the ROTW.
This is the time of year to pay really close attention to the first figure run this season and how it lines up with overall development. As most of us are aware, jump-up improvements in the 1st or 2nd race of the 4yr old or sometimes even 5yr old season are common, and I'm much more interested in a horse that is doing well right now than one who I need to count on to run back to a figure earned 6 months ago and has regressed quite a bit since.
Siem - KD figures I tend to ignore due to the highly unusual nature of that surface, though you can't deny he showed talent last summer. The giant bounce and lackluster return race may just be him being brought along slowly and could be a return to form 2nd off the layoff, but relative to the others in this race, I'm not taking a chance on him until I actually see that return to form.
Cowboy Culture - Accounting for weight and post, his figure in Jan rates as good as any in the race when looking at the last 2 races a horse has run, and that figure also represents a nice 2pt new top in a "1st out for the season" race, which as mentioned above is a nice signal. The slow start in the last is a bit of a concern so I wouldn't make him the key, but he has to be used IMO
Holiday Stone - The only clear toss in this race
Sand Dancer - Vanilla connections aside, this horse has a nearly perfect development pattern from beginning to end and two other very talented siblings. I'm expecting a new top in this 1st out of the 4yr old season. He clearly needs to run one to get in the money, but he will be underneath on my tickets.
Krampus - Very little development from 3 to 4 and nothing in his 1st out at 5 to signal a forward move is coming. This one will be overbet due to connections and trouble indicator. A repeat of the existing pattern of numbers won't put him in the money here. Has already raced twice at GP this winter and done nothing.
Hembree - Very slight new top 1st out at 5 is a strong signal, and despite the ground and weight issue here, having Ortiz on board along with the overall pattern and fact that we know he likes the course make this one a clear key.
Breaking the Rules - 3 yr old sheet is pretty good overall, and based on his new top in a winter GP race he seems to be signaling he's doing well and might be able to make a new top at 4. Has a powerful late pace profile, which I currently prefer on this turf course as opposed to need-the-lead speed horses like Siem.
I will probably be flipping a coin between Hembree and BTR at post time, depending on the odds, and using Cowboy and Sand Dancer underneath. Siem and Krampus possible for 3rd I suppose.
EDIT - Sand Dancer scratched so wont be playing any tris, no value here.
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