You didn't ask me, but since this is the very issue I struggled with for years (while losing) despite fairly solid handicapping I'll make some suggestions. (now winning)

Many are going to disagree with my thinking on exotics, but that's OK.

1. You absolutely must learn how to make an odds line. Start by identifying contenders and non-contenders and then rank the contenders in order of preference. If your order of contenders is much different than what you see on the odds board, that's a good place to start looking for a value bet. You can refine that process over time and start assigning actual win percentages to the horses.

2. Try to focus your attention on races where there is a "suspect" favorite. Accumulate an arsenal of situations where the public makes the same mistakes over and over. They are fertile ground for proftiable wagers.

3. I rarely bet exotics of any type. I usually bet the best value overlay horse to win. Occasionally I bet two horses to win if they are both big overlays. I don't ever play any of my overlays in exactas, triples etc... underneath other horses as a saver. There is very little, if any value in putting an underlay over an overlay in an exotic as a saver. IMO, most saver bets cost you money over the long haul. I will occasionally box two overlay horses because there is added value leverage in that sort of box when you hate the favorite.

4. I rarely accept win odds of less than,
3-1 or 7-2. On the rare occasions I do, it's usually a small field with less than the typical number of contenders. Over the years I wasted an incredible amount of time, energy, and money trying to find "value bets" among shorter priced horses. The fine line edges that are theoretically possible to locate in that category are much harder to find than most people think. IMO, most players - even successful ones - simply spin thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of dollars through the windows with little or no edge (or even small losses) on horses going off at very short odds. You will dramatically increase your ROI by cutting down on bets on horses going off as short priced favorites even when you believe they are decent value. Most of the time, they are not. They are break even or slightly positive/negative depending on your skill.
All the profit comes from the rarer huge overlays.

That's a good start.



Post Edited (08-20-04 14:25)