Re: Reguest for JB (461 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: August 20, 2004 01:37PM
Crucial subject. I will risk some embarrassment...
The key is almost always evaluating the favorite. The favorite will be ITM two-thirds of the time. It's the most powerful betting stat in racing. I play more in races with bad favorites. I'll also focus more on races with bigger fields (eight and up).
I've done better lately with a few things:
1) Less exotic wagering as a percentage of total wagers. If I'm finding a lot to like/play in a race, I FORCE myself to find a solid win bet more than I used to. I'm looking 5-1 and up. I will bet more than one to win, but generally not unless they are both over 10-1. I won't "dutch" for less.
At the end of the day I want to look back and see that I covered my longshots with win bets...I don't want to look back and see the $20.00 I didn't cash because I missed the exacta and the tri...
2) I key more and box less. ESPECIALLY tris. Tri boxes are bankroll killers. I need more focus. Since the keys cost less, for the same amount of money I played in boxes I can sometimes hit the tri a few times as opposed to just once. I'm not that sophisticated, I just key a horse I like on top, and if the odds are good on others I like or the favorite looks bad, I may key more than one on top.
I have to say I am shocked by how good the payoffs can be in the tri with the favorite on top. As just one example, I played the 9th at Arlington yesterday. The favorite won, the second choice finished second and the third horse was about the fifth choice at 14-1. The $2 tri came back $136.80! There was only one other horse in the race that I could imagine cracking the tri.
3) I try to stay out of the exactas more if the favorite looks good. If the favorite looks bad, I'll go deeper in the exactas, and I try to focus on the longer priced horses. If the favorite figures, I lean more and more towards just trying to beat the favorite with a win bet. Also, as per the above, if the favorite figures, I may prefer to key it in the tri, since you may do well there if there are nice longshots (even one nice longshot!) under. I don't want the $27 exacta, I want the $136 tri!
4) Another thing I've been doing that's working out is when I like two horses and both are prices. Some of your questions address this (how many to play to win, etc.). It can be a real headache. I take the two horses and box them with the other contenders.
Let's say the 1 and 2 and prices and I also like the 5, 6 and 7. I do 1, 2, 5; 1, 2, 6; and 1, 2, 7.
In the AP race yesterday, I really liked the horse that finished second and the longshot that finished. Instead of boxing the four horses that were contenders ($24 for $1), I played my two with the two other contenders (two $2 three horse boxes cost $12 each) and doubled my payoff.
A little focus (and less boxing) can go a long way. Has definitely helped me.
Good luck. HP