Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2024 Kentucky Oaks/Derby Days Final Figures Churchill Downs May 3 & May 4, 2024 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Reguest for JB (464 Views)
Posted by: HP (IP Logged)
Date: August 20, 2004 01:37PM

Crucial subject. I will risk some embarrassment...

The key is almost always evaluating the favorite. The favorite will be ITM two-thirds of the time. It's the most powerful betting stat in racing. I play more in races with bad favorites. I'll also focus more on races with bigger fields (eight and up).

I've done better lately with a few things:

1) Less exotic wagering as a percentage of total wagers. If I'm finding a lot to like/play in a race, I FORCE myself to find a solid win bet more than I used to. I'm looking 5-1 and up. I will bet more than one to win, but generally not unless they are both over 10-1. I won't "dutch" for less.

At the end of the day I want to look back and see that I covered my longshots with win bets...I don't want to look back and see the $20.00 I didn't cash because I missed the exacta and the tri...

2) I key more and box less. ESPECIALLY tris. Tri boxes are bankroll killers. I need more focus. Since the keys cost less, for the same amount of money I played in boxes I can sometimes hit the tri a few times as opposed to just once. I'm not that sophisticated, I just key a horse I like on top, and if the odds are good on others I like or the favorite looks bad, I may key more than one on top.

I have to say I am shocked by how good the payoffs can be in the tri with the favorite on top. As just one example, I played the 9th at Arlington yesterday. The favorite won, the second choice finished second and the third horse was about the fifth choice at 14-1. The $2 tri came back $136.80! There was only one other horse in the race that I could imagine cracking the tri.

3) I try to stay out of the exactas more if the favorite looks good. If the favorite looks bad, I'll go deeper in the exactas, and I try to focus on the longer priced horses. If the favorite figures, I lean more and more towards just trying to beat the favorite with a win bet. Also, as per the above, if the favorite figures, I may prefer to key it in the tri, since you may do well there if there are nice longshots (even one nice longshot!) under. I don't want the $27 exacta, I want the $136 tri!

4) Another thing I've been doing that's working out is when I like two horses and both are prices. Some of your questions address this (how many to play to win, etc.). It can be a real headache. I take the two horses and box them with the other contenders.

Let's say the 1 and 2 and prices and I also like the 5, 6 and 7. I do 1, 2, 5; 1, 2, 6; and 1, 2, 7.

In the AP race yesterday, I really liked the horse that finished second and the longshot that finished. Instead of boxing the four horses that were contenders ($24 for $1), I played my two with the two other contenders (two $2 three horse boxes cost $12 each) and doubled my payoff.

A little focus (and less boxing) can go a long way. Has definitely helped me.

Good luck. HP



Subject Written By Posted
Reguest for JB (748 Views) jwo7 08/19/2004 10:02PM
Re: Reguest for JB (488 Views) msola1 08/20/2004 12:59PM
Re: Reguest for JB (464 Views) HP 08/20/2004 01:37PM
Single vs. Multiple-Race Bets. (563 Views) Mall 08/23/2004 12:51PM
Re: Single vs. Multiple-Race Bets. (479 Views) HP 08/23/2004 01:09PM
Re: Reguest for JB (470 Views) msola1 08/25/2004 10:17AM
Re: Reguest for JB (465 Views) 08/20/2004 01:44PM
Re: Reguest for JB (467 Views) TGAB 08/20/2004 04:19PM
Re: Reguest for JB (444 Views) Lucy 08/21/2004 12:37AM
Re: Reguest for JB (469 Views) cozzene 08/20/2004 08:58PM
Re: Reguest for JB (424 Views) jbelfior 08/25/2004 10:48AM
Re: Reguest for JB (427 Views) HP 08/25/2004 12:04PM
Re: Reguest for JB (450 Views) msola1 08/30/2004 01:40PM
Re: Reguest for JB (485 Views) OPM 08/23/2004 01:10PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.