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 Race of the Week:  2019 Kentucky Oaks / Derby Final TG Figures Churchill Downs, May 3 & 4, 2019 
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Re: Perspectives (406 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 11, 2019 12:19PM

ajkreider Wrote:
> My takeaways from Saturday.
> Haikal is the real deal. Don't know what number
> it gets but think Vino might have slipped into
> negative territory, and that race compares very
> well. Haikal got his last fraction a full second
> quicker than the others in the blanket finish, and
> the same last quarter as Vino.
> Much Better also ran huge. Would have had 2nd
> easily in the Tom Fool.
> Do Share ran a hole in the wind against some
> reasonably fast horses.

Pace is seldom a focus of discussion on this board, but one thing to keep in mind that may temper the enthusiasm for the performances of both Haikal and Do Share is that on paper, both the Tom Fool and the Gotham were absolutely LOADED with speed.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that a fast pace would indeed unfold of course, but as we now know it to be the case in both races, that meant that the speed horses (almost every entry) were compromised, and the deep closers -- Haikal and Do Share were pretty much the only closers in each race -- were the biggest beneficiaries and figured to put forth their best relative efforts given the optimum pace conditions for their running style, even considering the normally highly speed-favoring Aqueduct main track.

Going forward, whatever figures Haikal and Do Share earned in those races should be looked at in the context of those favorable pace conditions. All else being equal, neither horse is likely to reproduce as good an effort, relatively speaking, without the benefit of the same ideal pace conditions they faced to in the Tom Fool and Gotham Saturday.

Agree on Much Better, given the suicidal early fractions he set (but it's Baffert in New York, so who knows going forward).

Subject Written By Posted
Perspectives (1479 Views) Silver Charm 03/10/2019 09:23AM
Re: Perspectives (448 Views) ajkreider 03/10/2019 11:24PM
Re: Perspectives (407 Views) Tavasco 03/11/2019 01:49AM
Re: Perspectives (316 Views) Molesap 03/12/2019 02:45AM
Re: Perspectives (406 Views) Mathcapper 03/11/2019 12:19PM
Re: Perspectives (443 Views) TGJB 03/11/2019 01:04PM
Re: Perspectives (428 Views) TGJB 03/11/2019 01:52PM
Re: Perspectives (376 Views) Al Caught Up 03/11/2019 01:57PM
Re: Perspectives (313 Views) drbillym 03/12/2019 06:28AM
Very tricky (461 Views) TGJB 03/12/2019 03:36PM
Re: Very tricky (352 Views) Silver Charm 03/12/2019 09:01PM
Re: Perspectives (352 Views) ajkreider 03/11/2019 02:16PM
Re: Perspectives (365 Views) richiebee 03/11/2019 03:01PM
Re: Perspectives (332 Views) johnnym 03/11/2019 05:11PM
Re: Perspectives (321 Views) Silver Charm 03/11/2019 08:19PM
Re: Perspectives (313 Views) johnnym 03/11/2019 08:32PM
Re: Perspectives (324 Views) Silver Charm 03/11/2019 09:26PM
Re: Instagrand (339 Views) BitPlayer 03/12/2019 12:07AM
Re: Instagrand (336 Views) boardedup 03/12/2019 02:06AM
Re: Instagrand (374 Views) johnnym 03/12/2019 09:43AM

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