Re: Perspectives (406 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper
Date: March 11, 2019 12:19PM
> My takeaways from Saturday.
> Haikal is the real deal. Don't know what number
> it gets but think Vino might have slipped into
> negative territory, and that race compares very
> well. Haikal got his last fraction a full second
> quicker than the others in the blanket finish, and
> the same last quarter as Vino.
> Much Better also ran huge. Would have had 2nd
> easily in the Tom Fool.
> Do Share ran a hole in the wind against some
> reasonably fast horses.
Pace is seldom a focus of discussion on this board, but one thing to keep in mind that may temper the enthusiasm for the performances of both Haikal and Do Share is that on paper, both the Tom Fool and the Gotham were absolutely LOADED with speed.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that a fast pace would indeed unfold of course, but as we now know it to be the case in both races, that meant that the speed horses (almost every entry) were compromised, and the deep closers -- Haikal and Do Share were pretty much the only closers in each race -- were the biggest beneficiaries and figured to put forth their best relative efforts given the optimum pace conditions for their running style, even considering the normally highly speed-favoring Aqueduct main track.
Going forward, whatever figures Haikal and Do Share earned in those races should be looked at in the context of those favorable pace conditions. All else being equal, neither horse is likely to reproduce as good an effort, relatively speaking, without the benefit of the same ideal pace conditions they faced to in the Tom Fool and Gotham Saturday.
Agree on Much Better, given the suicidal early fractions he set (but it's Baffert in New York, so who knows going forward).