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Re: Odds on By My Standards (499 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 24, 2019 12:19PM

That's about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.

Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least seven other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.

Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.

Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the "smart money" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn't happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).

_______ DD___ 1MTP____ FL
1______ 17_____ 36_____ 32
2______ 29_____ 57_____ 65
3______ 12_____ 18_____ 15
4______ 5.2____ 6.4_____ 7.8
5______ 23_____ 40_____ 22.5
6______ 1.7____ 0.9_____ 0.8
7______ 35_____ 67_____ 50
8______ 5.4____ 5.4_____ 6.4
9______ 18_____ 27_____ 23
10_____ 4.1____ 3.8_____ 4.3
11_____ 21_____ 40_____ 33



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Re: Louisiana Derby (427 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 07:58AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (490 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 10:02AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (499 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:19PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (432 Views) Fairmount1 03/24/2019 12:23PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (461 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:44PM


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