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Re: Odds on By My Standards (434 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 24, 2019 12:19PM

That's about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.

Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least seven other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.

Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.

Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the "smart money" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn't happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).

_______ DD___ 1MTP____ FL
1______ 17_____ 36_____ 32
2______ 29_____ 57_____ 65
3______ 12_____ 18_____ 15
4______ 5.2____ 6.4_____ 7.8
5______ 23_____ 40_____ 22.5
6______ 1.7____ 0.9_____ 0.8
7______ 35_____ 67_____ 50
8______ 5.4____ 5.4_____ 6.4
9______ 18_____ 27_____ 23
10_____ 4.1____ 3.8_____ 4.3
11_____ 21_____ 40_____ 33



Subject Written By Posted
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Re: Louisiana Derby (519 Views) ajkreider 03/23/2019 07:38PM
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Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (525 Views) TGJB 03/25/2019 11:04AM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (434 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/25/2019 12:22PM
Re: Louisiana Derby (432 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 06:33AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (396 Views) Dana666 03/24/2019 07:19AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (365 Views) Edgorman 03/24/2019 09:15AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (396 Views) jbelfior 03/24/2019 07:24AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (371 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 07:58AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (407 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 10:02AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (434 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:19PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (378 Views) Fairmount1 03/24/2019 12:23PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (397 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:44PM


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