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Re: Odds on By My Standards (889 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 24, 2019 12:19PM

That's about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.

Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least [i]seven[/i] other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.

Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.

Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the "smart money" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn't happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).

_______ [b]DD[/b]___ [b]1MTP[/b]____ [b]FL[/b]
1______ 17_____ [b]36[/b]_____ 32
2______ 29_____ [b]57[/b]_____ 65
3______ 12_____ [b]18[/b]_____ 15
4______ 5.2____ 6.4_____ 7.8
5______ [b]23[/b]_____ [b]40[/b]_____ [b]22.5[/b]
6______ 1.7____ 0.9_____ 0.8
7______ 35_____ [b]67[/b]_____ 50
8______ 5.4____ 5.4_____ 6.4
9______ 18_____ [b]27[/b]_____ 23
10_____ 4.1____ 3.8_____ 4.3
11_____ 21_____ [b]40[/b]_____ 33



Subject Written By Posted
Louisiana Derby (1660 Views) jbelfior 03/23/2019 06:52PM
Re: Louisiana Derby (983 Views) ajkreider 03/23/2019 07:38PM
Re: Louisiana Derby (917 Views) Fairmount1 03/23/2019 09:06PM
Re: Louisiana Derby (823 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 10:27AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (746 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 11:23AM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (1296 Views) Fairmount1 03/24/2019 11:28AM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (846 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 11:47AM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (889 Views) Fairmount1 03/24/2019 12:03PM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (916 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 02:10PM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (933 Views) TGJB 03/25/2019 11:04AM
Re: Louisiana Derby. Lesson in Figures (852 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/25/2019 12:22PM
Re: Louisiana Derby (901 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 06:33AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (779 Views) Dana666 03/24/2019 07:19AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (754 Views) Edgorman 03/24/2019 09:15AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (808 Views) jbelfior 03/24/2019 07:24AM
Re: Louisiana Derby (790 Views) joemama 03/24/2019 07:58AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (845 Views) BitPlayer 03/24/2019 10:02AM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (889 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:19PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (782 Views) Fairmount1 03/24/2019 12:23PM
Re: Odds on By My Standards (840 Views) Mathcapper 03/24/2019 12:44PM


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