Frank,

I am Mifftified about who the obnoxious poster you mention might be. I'll keep thinking on that one.

In other news, the Oracle of Omaha just announced a few hours ago that he is betting on Dubai with his Berkshire Hathaway brand by opening an office there. Guess he wants Plus Que or the Magician if he were betting on the derby instead of Omaha Beach.

At the moment, weather looks pretty good for Fri and Sat. Just like last year though, a storm predicted for Monday started creeping into the Sunday forecast and eventually dumped rain on me ALL day on the first Sat of May. As wrongly said, let's hope it stays dry for both days.

I spoke to Mandella and his wife who both were at Oaklawn for Ark Derby. I saw them in the paddock area with Omaha Beach schooling the day before the Ark Derby while a race was running. Their confidence was so obvious and the horse looked like a beast to my untrained eye. You mentioned horses that take a while to break their maiden aren't usually stakes horses. I would point out that patient trainers are more likely to have this happen then say a Baffert. And forgive Omaha Beach a little bit as on debut, he had to listen to Ice Cube as well as the shooting at Del Mar last summer (another racing black eye). Appropriately enough, More Ice was the winner of that race. Seriously though, I think comparing Mandella and Shug as trainers as far as being patient is a fair comparison. Orb broke his maiden in his 4th start. He then rattled off four more victories in a row culminating in the Derby. It can be done on this stage.

As for the critical question, does OB bounce? The draw matters. And I would also point out he beat 2 Baffert's in Ark that were 8+ and 5+ Lengths clear of 3rd in the Rebel and Ark Derby. If OB had not been in those races, my guess is the Baffert's would be praised as the next TC winning possibilities.

Last topic here. Interesting you see a fast pace. Almost all the so-called experts say it will not be a fast pace. This is the $500k question if OB bouncing is the million dollar question. Who leads when they enter the backstretch? If someone can accurately predict that I'd love to hear it. My guess is OB sits just off whomever goes until they enter the backstretch and he tries to take over right away on the backside. Spinoff? Max Security if no one else goes?