Wednesday's T-Graph Analysis at Saratoga (880 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: August 26, 2004 12:34AM
I have spent my last $25 on the T-Graph analysis product after today's card at Saratoga. I know we all have bad days handicapping and we lose money, but I just don't see how some of these horses became selections. I posted a few weeks ago about what I perceived to be a lack of "common sense" handicapping missing in the product and JB was nice enough to reply, but I didn't hear from anybody else. Anybody actually play the selections at SAratoga today?
Let me explain what I mean by "common sense" handicapping. It isn't meant to be a "shot" at TGraph. What I mean are handicapping angles/tools that an average handicapper would be be able to use.
Race 1, the selection was Royal Rapids and Hristoforos. It was a nx1 allowance race and Hristoforos was 1 for 36 lifetime. I know T-graph doesn't consider "class", but betting on maidens that have lost 15 to 20 times in the same condition or horses that can never clear their nx1 condition is a "common sense" bad bet. Of course in 36 starts the horse had some good figures and slugged up for 3rd or 4th with lost ground afew times. And Royal Rapids is worse. I can bet shippers from small tracks when the Trainer is good. Betting on seemingly "outclassed" shippers trained by Jonathan Shepperd, Graham Motion, Michael Dickinson, etc. can be a profitable angle. But betting on a 15k claimer from Colonial trained by Marialice Coffey and ridden by Ray Ganpath to win an allowance race at Saratoga is tough to do.
Race 2. T-Graph selects the 1 to 2 shot entry from Pletcher to use in doubles. I can't criticize the selection other than to say, if you were going to pick a 1 to 2 shot, you should have just "passed" the race. I doubt the kind of betters paying $25 for the sheets and the analysis want 1 to 2 shots.
Race 3. Holiday Lady to run a "big one". Dead last.
Race 4. Lonesome Too, win and place. 2nd to last.
Race 5. Amenuensis. 2nd to last. The horse has 2 lifetime wins, they were good figures, but BOTH WERE OVER A WET TRACK. That has to be discounted. That is what I mean by "blindly playing figures" without doing any handicapping.
Race 6. No bet due to scratch.
Race 7. 2 to 5 shot Midas Eyes to win. What can I say? "Pass" or take a stab at the exacta?
Race 8. A three horse box of the even money favorite with the horses that ran last and 2nd to last.
Race 9. Pass.
I apologize for the "acid" in my email, but I am an unhappy customer. I have seen value in the trainer stats and the raw figures from T-graph over the past 3 months, but I give up on the analysis. I am going to take one "potshot" to end the email. I don't know about the Ragozin numbers and I don't know what kind of handicapper Len Ragozin is, but if JB is the one doing the T-Graph analysis, he should be careful about challenging anybody to handicapping contests. Stick to figure making.