Re: Ground loss (496 Views)
Posted by: rezlegal
Date: June 11, 2019 10:44AM
From a handicapping point of view it is fair to ask what good does it do for any Tgraph player when we learn that none of the winners of the triple crown races ran the fastest Tgraph number? I presume every single person who has posted on this board has a basic understanding as to how important ground loss is in the computation of the final figure. With respect to Tacitus- solely as an example- his numbers going into the race could certainly lead a Tgraph player to conclude that if he “ran to his number” he was a likely winner. But as TGJB has stressed on numerous occasions, the use of the Tgraph sheets does NOT eliminate the need for handicapping. While it seems like red boarding ( I did not bet) would it not be reasonable to conclude going into the Belmont that Tacitus would lose ground from the outside? No one can foresee how much ground or whether Ortiz was so confident he could go wide both runs and win, but certainly there was no basis to conclude Tacitus would save ground— he might have but you could not go into the race with such a believe. Which leads to a second point- now that we are armed with a number for Tacitus- earned because of ground loss, how will that help me or any of us in future races? If he draws wide in the Jim Dandy or Travers and is bet down to favoritism, does a handicapper conclude he is “fastest” ( putting developmental patterns aside) and the most likely winner. The only point I am trying to make is that as wonderful as TGJBs product is- I cannot bet $2 without it- there is always a need to “work”, i.e. handicap. It is up to all of us to use the”data” provided - the question we often hear - “ Who do the sheets like? is not the right question ( putting the TGraph analysis aside).The only question is who do you like and Why?
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