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 Race of the Week:  The Hockessin Stakes Delaware Park, Race 6, July 13, 2019 
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Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (396 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: July 25, 2019 04:46PM

Regrettably, references to discounted Harville go over my head, but I have read the Meadow book (whoever posted that he needs an editor is correct). The focus of the book is not on choosing between pools, but on comparing the ROI (sometimes just win; other times win, place and show) and impact value of a great many "angles." He does include win, place, and show percentages in many cases. In the case of favorites going off at 1-1, those percentages are 41%, 64%, and 78%, so the overall probability of finishing exactly second is 23%.

In my mind, whether betting the favorite underneath make sense depends on why you think he might lose. If you think someone else might jump up, it makes more sense than if you think the favorite may not run his race. In the race you are talking about, I was listening but not betting. It seemed like the risk was the latter, that the favorite might not handle the 9f (given that he had never run more than 6.5f and seemed on edge in the paddock and warm-up).



Subject Written By Posted
Exacta Best Value in Racing? (586 Views) Mathcapper 07/25/2019 02:56PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (436 Views) philywheel 07/25/2019 03:27PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (387 Views) BB 07/25/2019 04:13PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (396 Views) BitPlayer 07/25/2019 04:46PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (378 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/25/2019 05:13PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (392 Views) Mathcapper 07/25/2019 05:37PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (399 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/25/2019 06:43PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (271 Views) beazley 07/28/2019 02:18PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (218 Views) boardedup 07/30/2019 11:06PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (195 Views) Molesap 07/30/2019 11:14PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (207 Views) boardedup 07/31/2019 11:22AM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (196 Views) Rich Curtis 07/31/2019 11:59AM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (184 Views) BitPlayer 07/31/2019 12:05PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (187 Views) Rich Curtis 07/31/2019 12:16PM


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