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Exacta Best Value in Racing? (579 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 25, 2019 02:56PM

Was listening to Andy S commenting on the exacta payout after the 3rd race at the Spa today. The 3-1 shot second choice finished over the Even money favorite, with the $2 Ex returning $19.20. Andy felt it should have paid around $12 and proclaimed that exactas with the 2nd or 3rd choice finishing over the favorite continues to offer the best value in racing.

My curiosity piqued, I did a quick check using discounted Harville to see if I could confirm his assertion. Turns out the expected payout was $18.90, pretty much right in line with the $19.20 actual payout. Even if you use straight conditional probability, which is inaccurate because it neglects to account for the more uniform probability distribution in the lower slots (ie. faves are less likely to finish 2nd or 3rd than their win odds indicate, while longshots are more likely to do so), the expected payout is still $15.65.

Can’t really draw any conclusions from one race, but this result doesn’t seem to support the assertion. Would be interesting to hear if anyone’s ever done any rigorous study on this, I haven't and I'm not aware of any, perhaps Barry Meadow in his latest book(?).



Subject Written By Posted
Exacta Best Value in Racing? (579 Views) Mathcapper 07/25/2019 02:56PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (430 Views) philywheel 07/25/2019 03:27PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (385 Views) BB 07/25/2019 04:13PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (393 Views) BitPlayer 07/25/2019 04:46PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (375 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/25/2019 05:13PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (390 Views) Mathcapper 07/25/2019 05:37PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (394 Views) Boscar Obarra 07/25/2019 06:43PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (266 Views) beazley 07/28/2019 02:18PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (213 Views) boardedup 07/30/2019 11:06PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (191 Views) Molesap 07/30/2019 11:14PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (200 Views) boardedup 07/31/2019 11:22AM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (188 Views) Rich Curtis 07/31/2019 11:59AM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (176 Views) BitPlayer 07/31/2019 12:05PM
Re: Exacta Best Value in Racing? (182 Views) Rich Curtis 07/31/2019 12:16PM


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