Danny,

The text below is from an email string I’m on with some TG/non TG guy’s.
I’m working on a stakes pick 5 for tomorrow and debating if it is worth playing?
The sequence could easily chalk out with 4/5 under 2/1 with a couple under even money.....

I intended to play 2 tickets, one singling Shancelot & Elate, the other tossing Shancelot and using the closers. I’m against Hog Creek, considering Mind Control,
Borracho, Nitrous & Rowayton.

A couple more shots of Fireball May be needed.....

When they run big #’s, Shancelot TG 6- neg, one of the top 4 or 5 figures ever given to a horse on TG. Obviously they exert a lot of energy and need a recovery period to rejuvenate. They get particularly sore in their hind quarters from big efforts.
You will see many after an effort have a bad start in their next race.
The reason is they blast or push off from their hind quarters when leaving the gate. The speed balls especially. When they are sore or hurting? They don’t fully exert themselves for the blast off and often get away bad.
The combination of a big effort, having the rail and with Call Paul right outside who can certainly run with him for at least a 1/4 if not a half and whatever Navarro does!!!
Makes IMHO a decent shot to take against him in a minor position. He may be 2/5 and on 95 % of the pick 5 tickets.
The flip side is he is that much faster than the rest of the field he could handle a pretty good bounce and still win. Being in Navarro’s barn only make the decision more difficult.