Re: BC Biases (371 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer
Date: November 03, 2019 09:33AM
I'm not sure your comments about biases are fair. The talking heads need to talk about something, but Blue Prize closed from next to last to win the Distaff and several closers hit the board in dirt races. I think a lot of times a quirky course will seem to be speed-biased just because the horses who are handling the surface naturally wind up forwardly placed. The inside bias on the turf seemed to fade (see Uni) as the turf got chewed up over the course of the two days after the rails had been out most of the meet. Was Santa Anita wrong to protect the course in anticipation of the Breeders Cup?
As for New York, I'd like to see the Breeders Cup back there because the exotics takeout is lower and one-turn mile races are much fairer than those at two turns when the fields are large. The weather is, however, usually cold and sometimes wet (see the Monmouth experience) and New York courses are not immune to biases (see Track Trends on the NYRA website).
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