There is another horse in the race that is a much truer 0-2-X. Also a better price.

I think this is a great betting race. The highweight and heavy favorite is a 3yo running against older and faster horses. He is giving horses that have run better tops than him at least a point of weight. he is going to take a ton of extra stupid money because of his win rate (finished first in 7 of 8 races and second in only race he didnt run 1st in) but he racked up the record against a suspect 3yo crop and now he is in deep water. If he faces pressure, he is at serious risk of cracking -- looks like a fragile horse that has had a long campaign and is only running here to attempt to get something for another purpose.

I think the second choice is an overaced 3yo again stepping into deep water (although he did beat older in a G1 last out)...again, end of long season, race was an afterthought not a target. Horses in here too good to take so lightly.

My problem is that after you throw out the top two favorites, there are so many tasty horses to choose from -- I could be entirely right on throwing out the chalk but still come up empty handed. I note there are two potential 0-2-X out there and as noted by other CB looks loaded -- that makes 4 to use.

The only thing I would add is that the horse on the rail is actually arguably taking a step down in class into this race. The only horses that beat him that day are horses that would easily be very heavy favorites in this race if they were in it. I wish he were getting a bit more weight.

So, there is a 5 horse box -- exacta, tri, and super. Sorry for anybody else like thinking as I probably entirely jinxed you too because I am often right but also often dont have the right tickets to prove it.