Re: Bob Fortus Memorial stake on 12/26 (345 Views)
Posted by: Molesap
Date: December 26, 2019 12:05AM
Moonlight Garden seems tough to beat at a price that will likely be around even money. Her worst races in the past year have been as good as the best races from most of these. She comes into this race with 28 days of intervening rest and has two works since her last. Cox had been able to get three good runs that would likely win this race if she ran back to them and two OK runs that are still competitive with all of the field. She has a record of 3-1-1-1 at FG and 11-3-4-2-at the distance. Connections are about as solid as they come – in my book she is the most likely winner. However, as Bet Twice noted, Out for a Spin looks like she could be an overlay here if her morning line odds hold up. She jumped up with a huge win in the Ashland at big odds, then flopped in the Kentucky Oaks. She was then put on the shelf for six months and came back to ran a nonthreatening third in what to me, seemed like a better than looked effort while earning her second best lifetime figure, which is competitive with most of the field. Given she is about to become a 4YO in a week so she may have matured in that six months off, I think there is a reasonable chance she still has a forward move in her. If she does, she should be competitive in this field. I do not see her getting back to her lowest figure from the Ashland, but do see her improving enough to hit the exacta. I also think she could be the controlling pace and speed is always dangerous on the front end. For any exotics, I am leaning heavily on these two - so ultimately I agree with Bet Twice for the most part here.
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