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 Race of the Week:  Kentucky Oaks and Derby Cards - Final Figures Churchill Downs, 4-5 September 2020 
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Re: Independence Hall (613 Views)
Posted by: TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: January 09, 2020 04:45PM

If that's true it's going to turn out to be a classic example of a difference in methodology between those guys and literally all the serious figure makers. They are the only ones I've heard of that believe tracks don't change speed during the day (see "Changing Track Speeds" in the Archives section), and that's true historically as well ("History Lesson 2", same place).

The track got a lot faster through the day at Aqueduct on January 1 (like almost 7 points). Since those guys believe (per Ragozin and Friedman's book) that tracks don't do that, they will give horses who ran early in the card figures way to slow, or those in the later races way too fast, or both (if they end up using what amounts to the average track speed for the day, as opposed to the actual speed for each race).

Back in November Independence Hall did run a gigantic figure, he might get back to that again, regardless of the last one. But the other ones out of the Jerome, who apparently were given crazy new tops by Jake (that they didn't run), will show up as way too fast going forward, and some of the ones in the early races will look slower than they are when they come back. So you guys on the Rag board who are going to start screaming about this post-- why don't you watch a few these horses come back again before you do. Keep track of it.

Subject Written By Posted
Independence Hall (943 Views) BitPlayer 01/08/2020 01:37PM
Re: Independence Hall (680 Views) TGJB 01/08/2020 05:18PM
Re: Independence Hall (585 Views) Chas04 01/09/2020 03:38PM
Re: Independence Hall (576 Views) TGJB 01/09/2020 03:40PM
Re: Independence Hall (540 Views) Chas04 01/09/2020 04:02PM
Re: Independence Hall (613 Views) TGJB 01/09/2020 04:45PM
Re: Independence Hall (479 Views) Chas04 01/10/2020 06:29AM
Re: Independence Hall (529 Views) BitPlayer 01/09/2020 11:22PM
Re: Independence Hall (520 Views) Chas04 01/10/2020 06:34AM

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