NADAL - The game is in the details. (426 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: May 04, 2020 02:13AM
Last week, what was once the Ragozin board was rife with eagerness to bet against Nadal in Saturdays Arkansas Derby Heat #2.
I found it mildly curious but chalked it up to the general strategy of trying to beat a well bet horse that is more hype than accomplishment.
I hadn't seen any of his speed figures, Rags or TG or anybody. I did know he was winning races and a big money colt out of the Bob Baffert barn.
Today I glanced at the Jake board to see guys speculating about which Baffert colt would get the better #. Not much was said about the bets on the vulnerable Nadal. But the consensus was Nadal ran the better #.
Then I realized what caused all the excitement last week. Their process had Nadal regressing in his first three races. That is 7, 9, 11. No wonder, I would also want to load up against a pattern like that.
Over here we have a dilemma and split decision on a 3 y/o colt pattern that is pair, pair, pair as Nadal's 3, 3, 3.
Personally, I consider the pattern positive. I'll call it an idling line. I don't consider it high pct explosive but my simple mind determines that two of the three possibilities for the next race aren't bad.
TGJB is probably chuckling if he reads this because of what he knows about Nadal's trip three's and underlying races.
What leaves me at a loss for words is Baffert also trains three-time winning and undefeated colt Authentic who has also impressed. Surely he has a couple of others that will benefit from the added time until the September Derby. Is there still a qualifying points system, because if anybody could win the Kentucky Derby with a 1st-time starter it is IMO mysterious "Bullet Bob"
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