I remember last year there was a period where Castellano was winning all the grass stakes races, it made it difficult to bet those races, because the public started making Castellano's horse the favorite even when not deserved.
So While I agree that you should always be careful with Irad, you can get great value on faster horses, like yesterdays 7th race, Irad was on Chestertown, a nice 3 year old with only a maiden win to his credit, had run a top of 8 running up the track in a stake at fairgrounds, had a nice looking sheet, you even might say the horse showed he could even move forward off the 2 pt top, had some rest, etc. Only problem was that there were 3 horses in the race capable of running in the 3's (including the winner at $12.60 with Manny). Chestertown was 3-5/4-5 right up to post time and he went off at 6-5. To Irads credit he ran 2nd, but my point is only that as good as he is, even if he wins 34%,like the last 30 days, he doesn't win 66%, and you get better odds on the other contenders.