Re: How do you know? (372 Views)
Posted by: texasturfmaster
Date: June 18, 2020 03:33PM
When the figs aren't figuring for you with the super trainers, try creating an edge by focusing on the other angles that are talked about extensively here...weight, ground loss and tendencies.
Example: June 12th Belmont Race 6. F&M 1 1/8 on the turf, weights relatively even. Chad and Irad in the 10 post with the 3-2 favorite.
#3 coming off a long layoff with competitive back figures goes off 55-1. Looking at TG sheet, she threw a big figure coming off a previous long layoff (tendency).
She breaks to front, gets rail trip and leads for a mile before #10, who gets a 3w/2w trip reaches her in mid stretch. They duel to wire and fast closing #8 gets the nod in a three way photo.
Finishes 8-3-10. #3 loses race by a nose and pays $40 to place, $13.80 for show.
TG Analysis - calls out #3 for use in the exotics and doesn't mention #10. I assume the reason was a) value, b) competitive back figs, c) past tendency and d) potential ground saving trip vs potential ground losing trip for 3-2 favorite.
If #10 gets the better of the trip, she wins the race easily.
Bottom line - if you're spending good money for the data, use the figs as the foundation, but keep a close eye on the tendencies. Value is getting harder and harder to find.
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