Fri BC Late P5 - Obligatory Stab (286 Views)
Posted by: Molesap
Date: November 06, 2020 02:15PM
Friday Breeder’ Cup Late P5
2x4x3x5x2 = $120
Kee 6. 10-14
GOLDEN PAL fits the profile of the only two winners of this race and owns the fastest figure - however, it does not tower over the field and he is closer to the rest of the field that on most other services. I think he will track outside of Bodenheimer and try to have enough left to hold everyone else off – just not sure if he will be able to press the pace and out finish the speed. One of the things that the winners from 2018 and 2019 had in common was that they both went wire to wire. Small sample size I know, but not too much else to go on. I love the pure speed of BODENHEIMER. I am pretty confident he will be in front turning for home, but how wobbly legged he will get, who knows. He has some good figures and has had almost 5 weeks off. Big effort forthcoming???
Kee 7. 8-5-6-12-4
OUTADORE could easily wire the field. Historically being on the lead has not been good for this race and no runner has ever lead wire to wire, but I suspect this is the reason Ward entered him here and not the sprint where he has already had success. He has speed whereas, the imports do not seem to posses the kind of speed needed to stay with him and the US horses have not demonstrated that kind of quickness to stay with either. Helps that there is some cut in the ground. He has J. Ortiz stringing him on the lead and expect that he can get the distance based on breeding. He has a solid figure from his 6.5f win at KD. Heck, he likely ran almost the equivalent of a mile anyways with its long runup at KD. I may single on another ticket. I am guessing they get back on the beam this year with CADILLAC. I am going with the idea that he did not like the extra soft ground last time and that was the reason behind his dull performance. His numbers are not spectacular, but about 1/3 of the winners of this race have come out of the Dewhurst (and not necessarily won). GO ATHLETICO has never been more than a length back at the finish and has a pretty good record overall. He seems to be improving each start and got the best of Sealiway a couple of times. He is by France’s leading freshman sire and despite only going 6f last time, he did win a G3 at 7f before that. Historically horses needed to have gone at least 7f to have success in this race. I am worried about the field MUTASAABEQ beat last time being that he broke slow and still had time to circle the field and draw off. He beat a nothing field in the Bourbon. PUBLIC SECTOR is a Chad and looks like he could outrun his number.
Kee 8. 1-2-3
What can you say about the morning line favorite PRINCESS NOOR? Yes, she has been visually impressive, yes she is a CA horse who traditionally do well here, yes she is undefeated, yes she is a Baffert, yes she cost $1.35 million and yes, she has won her three races by an average of almost six lengths each. BUT, she run very fast – in fact, by most metrics every other horse in the field is as fast or faster. A number have multiple figures that better. She is a complete toss for me - why try to quantify a performance for predicting future performance if you are not going to apply the data?. I was hoping that SIMPLY RAVISHING would slip under the radar, but apparently not. She ran a tremendous race in the Alcibiades. In fact, her race was better than males the next day as time was almost a second faster. I know the track can change speed, but given that Essential Quality seems to be everyone’s second choice in the Juvenile, she will have a strong say in the outcome here despite garnering a figure that is not quite on par. Last year’s winner came out of this race as well. What I really liked about here performance was the 30.6 come home time – that is motoring for a 2YO filly. She worked a bullet two weeks after that win and worked solidly on Halloween as well. She seems versatile enough to stay up the speed early, but may have the best kick as well. In some ways, DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE may be the biggest overlay in the race as she looked really good winning last time and earned the best number on just about every service. She is undefeated and really untested up to this point. If Todd, Chad or Bob trained her, she would be half the odds. I think she has a big shot here and has the perfect running style. Two turns is a question mark, but that always seems to be the case for horses coming out of the Frizette and that has been a live race in terms of predicting success in this race over the years, so there does not seem to be anything to worry about. VEQUIST was favored last time out and ran a strong second earning the second best figure in the field. She ended up second without ever really threatening. I still think she can move forward here and could be a decent bet at her odds.
Kee 9. 12-4-14-5
PLUM ALI is undefeated much like morning line favorite AUNT PEARL, but gets a better pace scenario for her running style – think she is the one to beat here. She is undefeated – all grass route races and her speed figures are as good as anyone else in the field, although there ae a couple that are closely matched. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR ran second to AUNT PEARL in the Jessamine and never really had a chance as that one coasted on the lead. Spanish Loveaffair is 3-2-1-0 with a win in a small two stakes at GP on the turf. I think she has a big shot and you might get double digits. I think Aunt Pearl will have more company up front, but she has done nothing wrong up to date. Chad Brown’s EDITOR AT LARGE came home quickly in her debut, but did not have the same punch racing closer to the pace in the Miss Grillo. Think she can turn it around here. If she can find that closing kick she had in her debut, she will be ultra tough her with all of the speed. Brown has won this race a bunch of times and I think JJ may be able to get some sort of position with the speedy horses to his immediate inside so he is not forced too wide. I think she has a big shot here despite the post.
Kee 10. 3-7
I have thought REINVESTMENT RISK would beat JACKIE’S WARRIOR the last two times they ran together as I expected him to get better with distance. So far it has not happened, but maybe the two turns will help narrow the gap. He got a TON of late money last time and dropped from 2/1 to 6/5 as they were loading – somebody besides me was expecting more. I do think these two horses tower over the field, but maybe they will be closer today than the last couple indicate. JACKIE’S WARRIOR was so impressive in all four starts and seems to get better as the distance gets longer. He is the speed of the field, but there may be enough to occupy him early and let Reinvestment Risk or another closer get the upper hand late. The Champagne is the key race in my book and given the price difference and I will use just these two.