Re: Any update? (773 Views)
Posted by: bluechip21 (IP Logged)
Date: April 15, 2021 01:31PM
I'll take the bait.
Assuming Jerry's comment already includes the 2015 running:
In short: since 2016 (excluding 2020): 12 neg figures. 2 winners. and 2 more ITM. So 4 ITM. Of these 4, the negative number going in was not faster than negative 1.
So adding to JB's 13 year tally, 51 negative figures. 12 ITM... I think the takeaway is that you it might be OK to have a negative figure, but you do not want it being lower than negative 1 (ideally, you want it to be no faster than -0.2, when you exclude Justify). As a lot of the faster figs going into the gate did not fire in May.
Here is the "math"...
2016:
Number of neg figs: 1
Destin (-0.3) - finished 6th
2017:
Number of neg figs: 4
Always Dreaming (-0.2) - winner, paired neg fig.
Practical Joke (-0.2) - 5th; Gunnevera (-2.2) - 7th; Irish War Cry (-2.3) - 10th.
2018:
Number of neg figs: 6 (3 of the 6 rounded out the tri.)
Justify (-1) / Good Magic (-0.2) / Audible (-1.0) Each neg fig was in their final prep and each fig paired.
Mendelssohn (-4.2) – 20th; Bolt D Oro* (-1.0) - 12th; Vinno Russo (-1) - 9th.
*neg fig was at 2YO
2019:
Number of neg figs: 1
Improbable (-1.1) - 5th
Edit: typo (2x)
Assuming Jerry's comment already includes the 2015 running:
In short: since 2016 (excluding 2020): 12 neg figures. 2 winners. and 2 more ITM. So 4 ITM. Of these 4, the negative number going in was not faster than negative 1.
So adding to JB's 13 year tally, 51 negative figures. 12 ITM... I think the takeaway is that you it might be OK to have a negative figure, but you do not want it being lower than negative 1 (ideally, you want it to be no faster than -0.2, when you exclude Justify). As a lot of the faster figs going into the gate did not fire in May.
Here is the "math"...
2016:
Number of neg figs: 1
Destin (-0.3) - finished 6th
2017:
Number of neg figs: 4
Always Dreaming (-0.2) - winner, paired neg fig.
Practical Joke (-0.2) - 5th; Gunnevera (-2.2) - 7th; Irish War Cry (-2.3) - 10th.
2018:
Number of neg figs: 6 (3 of the 6 rounded out the tri.)
Justify (-1) / Good Magic (-0.2) / Audible (-1.0) Each neg fig was in their final prep and each fig paired.
Mendelssohn (-4.2) – 20th; Bolt D Oro* (-1.0) - 12th; Vinno Russo (-1) - 9th.
*neg fig was at 2YO
2019:
Number of neg figs: 1
Improbable (-1.1) - 5th
Edit: typo (2x)
Subject | Written By | Posted |
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PonyBologna | 04/15/2021 12:10PM |
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bluechip21 | 04/15/2021 01:31PM |
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johnnym | 04/15/2021 03:05PM |
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TGAB | 04/15/2021 06:04PM |
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johnnym | 04/15/2021 08:43PM |
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Molesap | 04/15/2021 10:22PM |
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hellersorr | 04/16/2021 12:12AM |
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ajkreider | 04/16/2021 01:10PM |
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JohnTChance | 04/17/2021 11:26AM |
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