Re: Nonscience Addendum and Nonscience II (400 Views)
Posted by: richiebee
Date: April 23, 2021 02:33AM
Further proof. Much too much time on my hands.
More on TAPIT:
Tapit at Preakness: I think 6 starters since 2013, the best effort a third
place finish by Divining Rod in 2015.
I am not piling on Tapit. He did not become a leading sire without producing
stakes winners on multiple surfaces and at multiple distances. As a leading
sire he has been bred to top mares. Again it surprises me that Tapit has had
less than 20 combined starters in Derby and Preakness and has had very little
impact, yet his progeny have accounted for three of the last six (12 furlong)
Tapit's son Essential Quality will be favored in this year's Kentucky Derby.
Tapit had another strong contender in Greatest Honour, winner of the Holy Bull
and Fountain of Youth, third in the Florida Derby. GH is now on the shelf after
Shug was dissatisfied with GH's post Florida Derby training and Rood and
Got me thinking about Orb, who won the 2013 Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby
and Kentucky Derby, but never won another race. Got me thinking about Always
Dreaming, who won a Gulfstream allowance race, the Florida Derby, the Kentucky
Derby, but never won another race.
Then there is Maximum Security, who won two GP allowance races, the Florida
Derby and crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby, and went on to win
multiple stakes races, but we all know now that MS was Flying High in the
Friendly Sky, and that's a Bingo if you get the musical reference.
Other than these three Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby winners, there have been 25
Derby runners who have run at GP multiple times as a 3YO prepping for the
Kentucky Derby since 2013.
The average Derby finish for these 25 runners was 11th, and their average off
odds were approximately 24/1. Six of these 25 were trained by Todd Pletcher.
For 2021, there are two runners, Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich, the 1-2
finishers in the Florida Derby, who had two races at GP prepping for the Derby.
Looking at both of them I make them both prime bounce candidates if in the gate
at CD eight days from now. To me they have both developed rapidly, which is
what you want in a spring 3YO, but TG's evaluation of KA's Florida Derby might
give one reservation and Soup and Sandwich's lack of 2YO racing would increase
the chance of a regression when stretching to 10 furlongs, in my most humble opinion.
Revealing as much proprietary data as I can without expecting censure, KA's
Thoro-Pattern (small sample) gives him an approximately 25% chance of posting a
new top, but also shows an approximately 60% chance of Off/X.
Interesting that both KA and Soup had a Tampa race as a 3YO, as did Always
On the fringes of this conversation is my predicted Belmont winner Dynamic One,
who had a GP race late in December and then a second GP race at the end of