Re: TDN - Using Speed Figures to Track Possible Cheaters (562 Views)
Posted by: TGJB
Date: August 30, 2021 11:27PM
I saw the test list they produced before the pandemic (and I mean right before, my last in person meeting for a long time). The way the program works is it uses a rolling last few starts— I explained to them that guys run hot and cold, if you use large body samples and averages you won’t get it. (This, by the way, is the mistake in Ragozin’s methodology. It’s right to use large samples and averages- pars- when you first set up a database, because at that point you have nothing else to work with, but wrong to do it after that because you’re dealing with variable conditions throughout the individual days).
In any event, the best that program can do is approximate what a good handicapper who is looking closely at TG for their own circuit can come up with.