Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2022 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Keeneland 4-5 November 2022 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
A Different Perspective. (1748 Views)
Posted by: Mall (IP Logged)
Date: May 03, 2002 12:20AM

The Oaks: With BB out, TCL's nos. appear to lay over the field & visually at least, her Ashland win, bias-aided IMHO, didn't seem to tax her much if at all. However, virtually every horseman at CD seems to have something negative to say about her wks and/or appearance & something extremely positive to say about Y's wks & appearance. Depending on odds, go with the horsemen on this one, because while I agree with TG that the race itself may not offer great betting value, the Oaks/Derby double may, depending on who you like in the big race. Besides, a 4-5 horse part wheel won't cost nearly as much as the amt you shld invest in order to have a realistic chance of hitting the super.

I didn't realize I was going to get bonus copies of the seminars(tks) with my sheets, and I was a little surprised to find myself agreeing with much of the dope, with only a few items worth noting.

1.Although Saarland is my play at anything close to the unrealistic 15-1 ML, & wld be a reasonable bet at 8-1, at this pt I guess I'm the only one who keeps looking at his line & thinking that he may need one more race before making the fwd move everyone is anticipating.

2. As much as HH is a poor win bet at 9/2, my read of the sheets leads me to conclude that it wld be a mistake to exclude him from all exotics, including the super. Does everyone really think HH will run behind the 8 horses mentioned in the seminar?

3. The horse I think has an outside chance to complete the super at 100-1 or so is Lusty Latin. Mullins made the clm, so he's actually had the horse for 5, not 2, races. More to the pt, he's training well, his dam has produced 2 gd routers, he has the right runnng style, & my guess is that the connections are shooting for a minor prize, which I think increases the chance of geting one. LL made 5 pt fwd moves without bouncing in the past, & I think a fwd move is at least as likely as a bkwd one on Sat.

The nos difference is not limited to the Wood by any means, as there are significant differences in direction in the TG & Rags nos for the last 2 races for about half the field, which itself may be evidence that you shld treat this yr's contest more as a "fun" betting race than the great gambling opportunity everyone else seems to be telling you that it represents.

Finally, my other choice with Saar is Medaglia, for a reason which has little to do with his excellent line. Last night I actually dreamt that he won the race, something which has only happened to me once before, when about 20 yrs or so ago I drove 50 miles thru a vicious storm & was late for a dinner party to watch a horse called Kaboom Minbar win by 7 easy lengths. Then again, maybe I was thinking of M because one of my comrades at CD called earlier to explain why his "action" was not suited to the Derby distance. I guess I'll just have to wait until Sat to find out which it is.



Subject Written By Posted
A Different Perspective. (1748 Views) Mall 05/03/2002 12:20AM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.