A Different Perspective. (1748 Views)
Posted by: Mall
Date: May 03, 2002 12:20AM
The Oaks: With BB out, TCL's nos. appear to lay over the field & visually at least, her Ashland win, bias-aided IMHO, didn't seem to tax her much if at all. However, virtually every horseman at CD seems to have something negative to say about her wks and/or appearance & something extremely positive to say about Y's wks & appearance. Depending on odds, go with the horsemen on this one, because while I agree with TG that the race itself may not offer great betting value, the Oaks/Derby double may, depending on who you like in the big race. Besides, a 4-5 horse part wheel won't cost nearly as much as the amt you shld invest in order to have a realistic chance of hitting the super.
I didn't realize I was going to get bonus copies of the seminars(tks) with my sheets, and I was a little surprised to find myself agreeing with much of the dope, with only a few items worth noting.
1.Although Saarland is my play at anything close to the unrealistic 15-1 ML, & wld be a reasonable bet at 8-1, at this pt I guess I'm the only one who keeps looking at his line & thinking that he may need one more race before making the fwd move everyone is anticipating.
2. As much as HH is a poor win bet at 9/2, my read of the sheets leads me to conclude that it wld be a mistake to exclude him from all exotics, including the super. Does everyone really think HH will run behind the 8 horses mentioned in the seminar?
3. The horse I think has an outside chance to complete the super at 100-1 or so is Lusty Latin. Mullins made the clm, so he's actually had the horse for 5, not 2, races. More to the pt, he's training well, his dam has produced 2 gd routers, he has the right runnng style, & my guess is that the connections are shooting for a minor prize, which I think increases the chance of geting one. LL made 5 pt fwd moves without bouncing in the past, & I think a fwd move is at least as likely as a bkwd one on Sat.
The nos difference is not limited to the Wood by any means, as there are significant differences in direction in the TG & Rags nos for the last 2 races for about half the field, which itself may be evidence that you shld treat this yr's contest more as a "fun" betting race than the great gambling opportunity everyone else seems to be telling you that it represents.
Finally, my other choice with Saar is Medaglia, for a reason which has little to do with his excellent line. Last night I actually dreamt that he won the race, something which has only happened to me once before, when about 20 yrs or so ago I drove 50 miles thru a vicious storm & was late for a dinner party to watch a horse called Kaboom Minbar win by 7 easy lengths. Then again, maybe I was thinking of M because one of my comrades at CD called earlier to explain why his "action" was not suited to the Derby distance. I guess I'll just have to wait until Sat to find out which it is.