I believe he's referring to Giacomo and MTBird, who both finished 3rd in the preak. Both those horses won at improbable odds due to a pace melt down, so there are plenty of parallels here.

Certainly agree that Rich Strike does not have to bounce, but he is highly unlikely to get the pace setup and trip that led to his Derby win again. Will be surprised if he wins another G1, won't be surprised when he closes for third.