Re: Derby Seminar (472 Views)
Posted by: alm
Date: May 11, 2022 12:09PM
The best horses in this race didn't win because, and this has happened in the past for sure, it's really, really difficult to get through a 20 horse field on a track that's not designed for it. And let's acknowledge that the jockey on the winner rode a brilliant race. His main goal was to stay out of trouble and make one clean run.
There's also no doubt that the transition to and from a synthetic track covered up the horse's progress that finally showed up on the dirt. I was at Keeneland every day and can report if you look closely that there were upsets like this frequently through the short meet...given that Turfway is a feeder track for some of the horses running against what seems to be tougher company.
A guy sitting at my table had the winner and when I asked him why he made the bet, he showed me his ticket. He bet on the favorite and 3 others with odds spacing up to the longest shot in the field. I just looked to the sky to resolve the nutso factor that I don't have in my handicapping.
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